8239 Fay Dr · Berkeley, MO 63134

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1951 6,359 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Opportunity ~ Occupied on Lease at $800 per month through 1/31/2023 ~ Nice 2+ bedroom single family with full basement and carport. New HVAC 10/21 ~ Replacement Vinyl Windows 2/22 ~ Newer Cabinets, Sink, Fixtures in Kitchen, Laminate Floor ~ Full Bath, Original Ceramic Tile ~ 2 Bedrooms with 3rd the Original Dining Room ~ Includes New Refrigerator and Stove 1/22 ~ Small Wood Deck in Backyard ~ Tenant Occupied. Can be combined with 6712 Bitteroot and 6612 Bitteroot both 63134, and 9702 Winkler 63136. Buy individually or as a package ~ all occupied on lease. (see MLS #22043652)

Key facts

• Newer cabinets
• Newer sink
• Carport

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• CARPORT
• REPLACEMENT VINYL WINDOWS
• NEWER CABINETS
• NEWER SINK
• NEWER FIXTURES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Electric service by Ameren
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot with other/unspecified features

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#774 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mccluer High (math 0% / reading 17%, grade F, #511 of 521 statewide, top 98%, 1,181 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $119k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $117,215 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.59%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8234 Airport Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0	792 (0%)	4mo	$75,000	$95	93
6317 Abbott Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0	792 (0%)	5mo	$79,900	$101	86
8235 Davenport Dr	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	792 (0%)	5mo	$63,000	$80	76
222 Henquin Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0	816 (+3%)	1mo	$115,000	$141	74
6301 Jefferson Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	816 (+3%)	6mo	$62,500	$77	69
8027 Aline Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0	852 (+8%)	6mo	$45,000	$53	65
6153 Hancock Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	732 (-8%)	5mo	$59,900	$82	64
308 Henquin Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0	861 (+9%)	1mo	$80,000	$93	63
6330 Washington Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+9%)	1mo	$50,000	$58	59
6300 Evergreen Blvd	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+9%)	2mo	$99,000	$115	58
213 Henquin Dr	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	696 (-12%)	4mo	$34,900	$50	52
619 Carson Rd	0.69mi	1/1.0 (-1)	901 (+14%)	5mo	$75,000	$83	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,815
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $7,623
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63134

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $915

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6044 Cascade Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	984	$1,150	$1.17	7d	1	0.03mi
8306 Whitewater Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,195	$1.51	7d	1	0.11mi
6132 Eaton Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,125	$1.42	23d	1	0.20mi
6214 Jefferson Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,195	$1.46	23d	1	0.27mi
6156 Wulff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	960	$1,425	$1.48	10d	1	0.32mi
6333 Peurifoy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	23d	1	0.32mi
6042 Hancock Ave Berkeley, MO	3.0	1.0	1041	$1,495	$1.44	23d	1	0.41mi
910 Disco Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,260	$1.36	16d	1	0.42mi
222 Henquin Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,050	$1.29	17d	1	0.42mi
60 Mayme Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,285	$1.34	43d	1	0.43mi
6315 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	739	$1,175	$1.59	16d	1	0.43mi
6334 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,100	$1.27	4d	1	0.45mi
6336 Washington Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$1,175	$1.63	43d	1	0.46mi
6234 Hancock Ave Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	846	$1,050	$1.24	43d	1	0.46mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	23d	1	0.70mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,300	$1.38	43d	1	0.73mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,400	$1.49	23d	1	0.73mi
334 Mueller Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	713	$825	$1.16	23d	1	0.83mi
422 Plaza Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	0.98mi
8330 Woodhurst Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,000	$0.89	7d	1	1.00mi
519 Graf Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	887	$1,297	$1.46	20d	1	1.00mi
360 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	43d	1	1.01mi
5500 Mable Ave Unit 5530 B1 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	850	$915	$1.08	43d	1	1.06mi
5500 Mable Ave Unit 5518 B4 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$835	$1.11	43d	1	1.06mi
450 S Dade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	23d	1	1.06mi
709 Suburban Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$1,400	$1.44	43d	1	1.09mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	43d	1	1.11mi
24 Vierling Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$1,290	$1.52	7d	1	1.16mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	7d	1	1.20mi
153 Bascom Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1076	$1,195	$1.11	19d	1	1.22mi
171 Elbring Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,395	$1.38	12d	1	1.24mi
260 Sadonia Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,623	$1.49	20d	1	1.28mi
806 Marvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	726	$1,100	$1.52	43d	1	1.30mi
263 Sadonia Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	888	$1,350	$1.52	43d	1	1.31mi
46 Bascom Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	932	$1,175	$1.26	43d	1	1.31mi
5300 Grove Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	23d	1	1.32mi
223 Wiegel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	12d	1	1.34mi
419 S Florissant Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	1.35mi
7025 Richwood Ln Hazelwood, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,375	$1.47	17d	1	1.36mi
801 Thomas Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 317-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $119,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$564/yr (+$47/mo · 95.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,168
• − Management: −$1,168
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $953
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$229
• After-tax cash flow: $2,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Berkeley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #774
• US rank: #23800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berkeley, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 13,059
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 13,059
• Household income: $44,680
• Rent vs Own: 45.5% rent · 54.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.02%
• Current HPI: 226.9524
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+296.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $119,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-16 Rental Removed $1,300 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $1,300 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-11-01 Listed for Rent $1,550 TENANTTURNER2
• 2022-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-13 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-11 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-27 Listed $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-25 Coming Soon $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2011-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $30,001 Public Records
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $591 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.