21807 Olympia Springs Ln · Houston, TX 77449

$269,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,365 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2003 5,928 sqft lot $114/sqft · 8% below area Est $291k · 8% under $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. The spacious Kitchen is open to the family room which features marble-look counters and subway tile backsplash. New roof in 2024. From the entrance you walk past a large formal dining area and an upgraded half bath. The backyard has a stone patio with a large mature tree and landscaping. The neighborhood amenities include two community pools, a tennis court, a soccer field and four community parks for your family to enjoy!

Key facts

• Large mature tree
• Marble-look counters
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• MARBLE-LOOK COUNTERS
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• NEW ROOF
• STONE PATIO
• LARGE MATURE TREE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Loraine T Golbow El (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 959 students, 73% FRL); T H Mcdonald J H (math 42% / reading 49%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,059 students, 74% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 27% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,487 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.01%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,498
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -7.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3402 Twin Meadow Ln	0.33mi	3/2.5	2,510 (+6%)	1mo	$320,000	$127	74
22306 Coffee Mill Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,190 (-7%)	1mo	$375,000	$171	60
3130 Palacious Falls Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	2,492 (+5%)	4mo	$339,990	$136	56
4006 Mt Everest Way	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,100 (-11%)	4mo	$295,000	$140	54
3746 Cactus Field Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,047 (-13%)	9mo	$349,000	$170	53
4010 Mt Everest Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,128 (-10%)	7mo	$259,900	$122	51
3231 Bent Brook Way	0.48mi	3/2.5	2,044 (-14%)	7mo	$272,000	$133	49
21419 Vineyard Haven Ct	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,445 (+3%)	8mo	$345,000	$141	49
3138 Lantern Bay Ln	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,034 (-14%)	6mo	$267,000	$131	46
3222 Palacious Falls Ln	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,672 (+13%)	2mo	$459,000	$172	46
3402 Hawkins Glen Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,045 (-14%)	4mo	$335,000	$164	46
22519 Holbrook Springs Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,140 (-10%)	8mo	$325,000	$152	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-50,275
• Equity at exit: $61,454

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-76,950
• Equity at exit: $61,611

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,381 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$631 /mo · $7,577/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,779

Max offer price $213,487

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-162	-5% $-238	+0% $-314	+5% $-390	+10% $-467
Rent	-10% $-502	-5% $-408	+0% $-314	+5% $-220	+10% $-126
Rate	-1.0pp $-179	-0.5pp $-246	base $-314	+0.5pp $-384	+1.0pp $-455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3837 Banks Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	45d	1	0.16mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 3047 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,235	$1.39	12d	1	0.26mi
21919 Clay Rd Unit 21952 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,184	$1.36	0d	1	0.27mi
21919 Clay Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$3,574	$2.16	0d	1	0.33mi
21527 N Boundary Peak Way Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2274	$2,000	$0.88	0d	1	0.52mi
3507 Banks Run Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,806	$0.93	7d	1	0.73mi
21106 Blackbluff Ct Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$1,950	$1.05	7d	1	0.87mi
4110 Rapallo Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2300	$2,600	$1.13	7d	1	1.01mi
20911 Hazy Bluff Ct Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2940	$2,450	$0.83	45d	1	1.07mi
2723 Durham Chase Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2765	$2,275	$0.82	3d	1	1.08mi
22843 Castello Lakes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,148	$1.06	23d	1	1.09mi
20811 Trenton Valley Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2350	$2,200	$0.94	45d	1	1.12mi
4411 Andorno Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2094	$2,221	$1.06	26d	1	1.19mi
21402 Doral Rose Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,950	$1.05	26d	1	1.23mi
21622 Stonecross Terrace Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,050	$1.15	26d	1	1.26mi
22611 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	1.39mi
22613 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	1.39mi
22615 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	1.40mi
22713 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,419	$1.45	14d	1	1.43mi
22628 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,659	$1.32	17d	1	1.44mi
22717 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	7d	1	1.44mi
22719 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	19d	1	1.45mi
22626 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,699	$1.35	45d	1	1.45mi
22737 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,649	$1.41	45d	1	1.46mi
22624 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	1.46mi
22720 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	19d	1	1.46mi
22614 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	14d	1	1.46mi
22616 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,539	$1.36	17d	1	1.46mi
22622 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	1.46mi
22722 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,559	$1.27	18d	1	1.47mi
22718 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,439	$1.30	7d	1	1.47mi
22716 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,439	$1.31	7d	1	1.47mi
22738 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	21d	1	1.48mi
22728 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,369	$1.42	26d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $269,000 Active 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    This home has 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. The spacious Kitchen is open to the family room which features marble-look counters and subway tile backsplash. New roof in 2024. From the entrance you walk past a large formal dining area and an upgraded half bath. The backyard has a stone patio with a large mature tree and landscaping. The neighborhood amenities include two community pools, a tennis court, a soccer field and four community parks for your family to enjoy!

16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-06-06
    listed $289,000 Active
18. 2024-12-27
    historical
19. 2024-07-01
    price $299,900
20. 2024-05-22
    listed $310,000 Active
21. 2022-02-03
    soldstatus
22. 2022-02-02
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2021-12-30
    status Pending
24. 2021-12-27
    status Option Pending
25. 2021-12-23
    listed $260,000 Active
26. 2019-09-12
    soldstatus
27. 2019-09-11
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2019-09-05
    status Pending
29. 2019-08-28
    status Option Pending
30. 2019-08-16
    price $188,000
31. 2019-08-09
    price $192,000
32. 2019-08-02
    price $195,000
33. 2019-07-18
    price $200,000
34. 2019-07-12
    price $208,900
35. 2019-07-05
    price $209,900
36. 2019-06-28
    price $210,900
37. 2019-06-20
    price $211,900
38. 2019-06-13
    price $212,900
39. 2019-06-07
    price $213,900
40. 2019-05-31
    price $214,900
41. 2019-05-13
    listed $215,900 Active
42. 2019-05-01
    soldstatus
43. 2016-06-28
    soldstatus
44. 2016-06-27
    soldstatus Sold
45. 2016-05-24
    status Pending, Continue to Show
46. 2016-05-20
    status Option Pending
47. 2016-05-13
    listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,577 · $631/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,577 · $631/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$7,577
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,286
• − Management: −$2,286
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$8,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,994
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+49.4% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-01 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2024-05-22 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-12-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-23 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2019-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-09-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-09-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-08-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-08-16 Price Changed $188,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-09 Price Changed $192,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-02 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2019-07-18 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2019-07-12 Price Changed $208,900 HARMLS
• 2019-07-05 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2019-06-28 Price Changed $210,900 HARMLS
• 2019-06-20 Price Changed $211,900 HARMLS
• 2019-06-13 Price Changed $212,900 HARMLS
• 2019-06-07 Price Changed $213,900 HARMLS
• 2019-05-31 Price Changed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2019-05-13 Listed $215,900 HARMLS
• 2019-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-06-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-05-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-13 Listed $180,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,577 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.