2511 Martha Ct · Lake Alfred, FL 33850

$148,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1979 10,097 sqft lot $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO LOT RENT--YOU OWN THE LAND! 23x48 Sun Manor doublewide that has been well maintained plus updated with wood & tile flooring in several areas. Large lot at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. Other features include: 18x12 screened patio with ceramic tilefloor, 24x9 attached combo laundry/storage room, 17x12 carport, metal roofover, total irrigation & new central air unit was installed in 2006. Residents enjoy private access thru two recreation areas on 600+ acre Lake Mariana. HOA membership is optional, however, there is a $50 annual fee for upkeep of the lakefront recreation areas. Seller is not aware of any problems but home is being sold "as is" w/ right of inspection for the convenience of the seller.

Key facts

• Florida room
• 0.23 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• COMMUNITY WATERFRONT DOCK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area 1,152 square feet; Lot size approximately 0.23 acres (about 938 sq meters); Located on a public maintained paved road; Zoning: R-3; Universal property ID available
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $75; $6.25/month); Association name: Bob; Association fees required; Golf carts allowed in community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; One story; Southeast facing; Homestead eligible
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Other roof type; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Sliding doors; Cul-de-sac lot; Oversized lot; Paved lot/drive

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Mini-split unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (0.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Alfred Elementary School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 821 students, 49% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $149k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,521 (0.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.82%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,063
• Equity at exit: $22,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $11,410
• Equity at exit: $12,874

Cash invested: $41,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33850

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,185

Max offer price $148,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $321	-5% $279	+0% $237	+5% $195	+10% $153
Rent	-10% $120	-5% $178	+0% $237	+5% $296	+10% $354
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $275	base $237	+0.5pp $198	+1.0pp $159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,225
• Closing costs: $4,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Sunset Cir Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	1176	$1,100	$0.94	4d	1	0.28mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1040 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,475	$1.54	24d	1	1.28mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1036 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,445	$1.51	24d	1	1.28mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1065 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,425	$1.49	24d	1	1.28mi
609 Marianna Rd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,730	$1.46	24d	1	1.34mi
149 Jana Cir Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	24d	1	1.38mi
325 W Pierce St Unit 1 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	3d	1	1.39mi
150 S Nekoma Ave Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,375	$1.83	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   listed $148,900 Active
3. 2010-02-11
   soldstatus $57,000
4. 2010-02-10
   soldstatus $57,000 733-char remark

   Show marketing remark (733 chars)

   NO LOT RENT--YOU OWN THE LAND! 23x48 Sun Manor doublewide that has been well maintained plus updated with wood & tile flooring in several areas. Large lot at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. Other features include: 18x12 screened patio with ceramic tilefloor, 24x9 attached combo laundry/storage room, 17x12 carport, metal roofover, total irrigation & new central air unit was installed in 2006. Residents enjoy private access thru two recreation areas on 600+ acre Lake Mariana. HOA membership is optional, however, there is a $50 annual fee for upkeep of the lakefront recreation areas. Seller is not aware of any problems but home is being sold "as is" w/ right of inspection for the convenience of the seller.

5. 2009-09-02
   listed $58,000 733-char remark

   Show marketing remark (733 chars)

   NO LOT RENT--YOU OWN THE LAND! 23x48 Sun Manor doublewide that has been well maintained plus updated with wood & tile flooring in several areas. Large lot at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. Other features include: 18x12 screened patio with ceramic tilefloor, 24x9 attached combo laundry/storage room, 17x12 carport, metal roofover, total irrigation & new central air unit was installed in 2006. Residents enjoy private access thru two recreation areas on 600+ acre Lake Mariana. HOA membership is optional, however, there is a $50 annual fee for upkeep of the lakefront recreation areas. Seller is not aware of any problems but home is being sold "as is" w/ right of inspection for the convenience of the seller.

6. 2006-05-09
   soldstatus $75,000
7. 2005-04-05
   soldstatus $75,500
8. 1995-02-23
   soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,048 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$188/yr (+$16/mo · 17.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,341
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$4,332
• Taxable income: $434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$104
• After-tax cash flow: $2,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,757
• Household income: $61,622
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.91%
• Current HPI: 353.941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+132.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Listed $148,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2010-02-10 Sold (MLS) $57,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-02 Listed $58,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $75,500 Public Records
• 1995-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+24.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,048 · +32.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.