24701 Raymond Way #89 · Lake Forest, CA 92630

$295,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 100 Days on market

Built 1978 24 ac lot $205/sqft · 30% above area Est $227k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Prothero Mobile Estates in the heart of Lake Forest!! This welcoming 55+ community blends comfort, convenience, and a truly walkable lifestyle - shops, restaurants, the library and everyday essentials are all steps from your door. With an exceptional Walk score and easy access to the 5 Freeway, this location can’t be beat. This charming 2 bedroom 2 bath home sits in a desirable park-front setting, offering peaceful views of the community, with guest parking conveniently located across the way. Inside, you’ll appreciate the thoughtful upgrades completed within the past few years, including newer windows, roof, appliances, water heater, ceiling fans, storage shed and more- providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind. Once you’re settled in, you’ll love taking advantage of the community’s wonderful amenities including a sparkling pool, relaxing spa, and tennis courts. The beautifully maintained grounds make daily walks a pleasure. Warm, inviting, and ideally located, this home offers a fantastic opportunity to enjoy everything that Prothero Mobile Estates has to offer! Welcome Home!!

Key facts

• Relaxing spa
• Tennis courts
• 24.01 acre lot

Tags

• EXCEPTIONAL WALK SCORE
• RELAXING SPA
• TENNIS COURTS
• BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED GROUNDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $567 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• Recommended offer: $268k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.1% in Lake Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#387 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.23%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,598
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: 30.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24701 Raymond Way #39	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$202,500	$141	89
24921 Muirlands Blvd #28	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$118	81
24921 Muirlands #13	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$175,000	$122	80
24921 Muirlands Blvd #209	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$152,500	$106	80
24921 Muirlands Blvd #265	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$185,000	$128	78
24921 Muirlands Blvd #58	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$254,000	$176	78
24921 Muirlands Blvd #23	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	2mo	$199,000	$134	76
24701 Raymond Ave #120	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (+12%)	2mo	$375,000	$233	74
24921 Muirlands Blvd Spc 114	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$207,000	$144	74
24921 Muirlands Blvd #303	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$240,000	$167	71
24921 Muirlands blvd #78	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,570 (+9%)	3mo	$224,000	$143	65
24921 Muirlands Blvd #188	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	13mo	$299,000	$187	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-13,282
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $28,532
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92630

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $770	-5% $669	+0% $567	+5% $465	+10% $363
Rent	-10% $306	-5% $436	+0% $567	+5% $697	+10% $827
Rate	-1.0pp $715	-0.5pp $642	base $567	+0.5pp $490	+1.0pp $412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23250 Orange Ave Lake Forest, CA	2.0	2.0	947	$2,995	$3.16	25d	1	0.60mi
24391 Avenida de la Carlota Laguna Hills, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,965	$4.14	0d	19	0.72mi
25092 Farthing St Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$3,278	$3.72	0d	5	0.83mi
24555 Los Alisos Blvd Laguna Hills, CA	2.0	2.0	1014	$3,250	$3.21	16d	1	0.88mi
24555 Los Alisos Blvd Laguna Hills, CA	2.0	2.0	1007	$3,356	$3.33	44d	1	0.88mi
132 Avenida Majorca Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	995	$2,400	$2.41	7d	1	0.92mi
23333 Ridge Route Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$3,100	$3.47	3d	9	0.96mi
158 Avenida Majorca Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	1300	$3,200	$2.46	44d	1	0.99mi
24621 Overlake Dr Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1677	$4,350	$2.59	25d	1	0.99mi
24299 Paseo De Valencia Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1347	$3,770	$2.80	23d	7	1.01mi
6 Quinn Way Mission Viejo, CA	3.0	3.5	1716	$4,100	$2.39	21d	1	1.02mi
254 Calle Aragon Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1009	$3,000	$2.97	18d	1	1.03mi
2022 Via Mariposa E Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1325	$3,200	$2.42	19d	1	1.04mi
24246 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,750	$3.04	25d	1	1.04mi
24241 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,850	$3.15	44d	1	1.04mi
62 Aliso Ridge Loop Mission Viejo, CA	2.0	2.5	1560	$3,795	$2.43	25d	1	1.04mi
170 Avenida Majorca Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	25d	1	1.04mi
22835 Islamare Ln Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.5	1860	$6,600	$3.55	13d	1	1.05mi
22892 Plainview Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,400	$2.94	44d	1	1.05mi
169 Avenida Majorca Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	44d	1	1.05mi
74 Calle Aragon Unit A Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,700	$2.84	25d	1	1.05mi
969 Calle Aragon Unit 1B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1195	$2,900	$2.43	25d	1	1.05mi
205 Avenida Majorca Unit A Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1278	$3,600	$2.82	44d	1	1.06mi
2022 Via Mariposa E Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1305	$4,000	$3.07	44d	1	1.08mi
29 Calle Aragon Unit Q Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$3,100	$2.98	44d	1	1.09mi
2269 Via Puerta Unit N Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$2,700	$2.55	19d	1	1.09mi
46 Calle Aragon Unit R Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,800	$2.69	19d	1	1.10mi
224 Avenida Majorca Unit B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1009	$2,600	$2.58	44d	1	1.11mi
221 Avenida Majorca Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1438	$3,200	$2.23	25d	1	1.11mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 1B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1340	$2,950	$2.20	44d	1	1.11mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 3H Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	3.0	1663	$3,750	$2.25	44d	1	1.11mi
2293 Via Puerta Unit O Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$3,100	$2.93	19d	1	1.12mi
2299 Via Puerta Unit F Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	3.0	1530	$3,500	$2.29	19d	1	1.13mi
8 Via Castilla Unit S Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	44d	1	1.14mi
8 Via Castilla Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,250	$3.25	44d	1	1.14mi
8 Via Castilla Unit T Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,650	$2.55	6d	1	1.14mi
8 Via Castilla Unit N Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$3,250	$3.12	25d	1	1.14mi
2037 Via Mariposa E Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1325	$3,300	$2.49	44d	1	1.15mi
107 Via Estrada Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,700	$2.60	25d	1	1.15mi
21 Avenida Castilla Unit D Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	940	$3,200	$3.40	19d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $295,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $295,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $295,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $295,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $295,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-02-24
   historical

   Show marketing remark (1143 chars)

   Welcome to Prothero Mobile Estates in the heart of Lake Forest!! This welcoming 55+ community blends comfort, convenience, and a truly walkable lifestyle - shops, restaurants, the library and everyday essentials are all steps from your door. With an exceptional Walk score and easy access to the 5 Freeway, this location can’t be beat. This charming 2 bedroom 2 bath home sits in a desirable park-front setting, offering peaceful views of the community, with guest parking conveniently located across the way. Inside, you’ll appreciate the thoughtful upgrades completed within the past few years, including newer windows, roof, appliances, water heater, ceiling fans, storage shed and more- providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind. Once you’re settled in, you’ll love taking advantage of the community’s wonderful amenities including a sparkling pool, relaxing spa, and tennis courts. The beautifully maintained grounds make daily walks a pleasure. Warm, inviting, and ideally located, this home offers a fantastic opportunity to enjoy everything that Prothero Mobile Estates has to offer! Welcome Home!!

7. 2026-02-24
   listed $295,000 Active 1143-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1143 chars)

   Welcome to Prothero Mobile Estates in the heart of Lake Forest!! This welcoming 55+ community blends comfort, convenience, and a truly walkable lifestyle - shops, restaurants, the library and everyday essentials are all steps from your door. With an exceptional Walk score and easy access to the 5 Freeway, this location can’t be beat. This charming 2 bedroom 2 bath home sits in a desirable park-front setting, offering peaceful views of the community, with guest parking conveniently located across the way. Inside, you’ll appreciate the thoughtful upgrades completed within the past few years, including newer windows, roof, appliances, water heater, ceiling fans, storage shed and more- providing comfort, efficiency, and peace of mind. Once you’re settled in, you’ll love taking advantage of the community’s wonderful amenities including a sparkling pool, relaxing spa, and tennis courts. The beautifully maintained grounds make daily walks a pleasure. Warm, inviting, and ideally located, this home offers a fantastic opportunity to enjoy everything that Prothero Mobile Estates has to offer! Welcome Home!!

8. 2025-12-05
   listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,166
• − Management: −$3,166
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable income: $2,236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$537
• After-tax cash flow: $6,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddleback Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633860
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $85,577
• Composite: 56.05/100
• National rank: #1185
• State rank: #67 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #387
• US rank: #13130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Forest, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 80,019
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,152
• Household income: $125,853
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 19% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 18% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -866.99%
• Current HPI: 436.6189
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.51%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $295,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $295,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $92 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.