12939 Segrest Dr · Houston, TX 77047

$205,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,069 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1971 5,723 sqft lot Est $288k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BEDROOM 1.5 BATH HOME WITH LARGE DEN, FRONT YARD, AND 2 CAR CARPORT. REPAIRS ARE NEEDED. CALL TODAY

Key facts

• Large living area
• Spacious backyard
• Open kitchen

Tags

• MED CENTER SOUTH LOCATION
• FORMAL DINING OR FLEX SPACE
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Attached carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1971; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (18 x 14); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each 9 x 15); Total of 4 rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $199k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.66%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,591
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12939 Segrest Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,069 (0%)	1mo	$205,000	$99	97
3718 Kilkenny Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5	2,077 (+0%)	6mo	$369,999	$178	79
3714 Kilkenny Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	2,077 (+0%)	9mo	$375,000	$181	77
3727 Kildare Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,092 (+1%)	7mo	$250,000	$120	75
4302 Marchant Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,014 (-3%)	4mo	$255,000	$127	71
4018 Marchant Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-13%)	3mo	$249,990	$139	58
3710 Kilkenny Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,786 (-14%)	7mo	$339,999	$190	57
12022 Leitrim Way	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,161 (+4%)	18mo	$279,900	$130	42
3012 Stock Orchard Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,844 (-11%)	7mo	$355,000	$193	37
12819 Cape Hyannis Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,783 (-14%)	5mo	$149,950	$84	35
3023 Maughan Heights Trl	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,297 (+11%)	6mo	$345,000	$150	33
12807 Cape Hyannis Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,816 (-12%)	14mo	$249,500	$137	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,701
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,448
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,454/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,833

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $530	-5% $472	+0% $414	+5% $356	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $228	-5% $321	+0% $414	+5% $507	+10% $600
Rate	-1.0pp $517	-0.5pp $466	base $414	+0.5pp $361	+1.0pp $307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,646	$1.06	0d	1	0.69mi
3020 Gunnersbury Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,499	$0.90	16d	1	0.69mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	15d	1	0.71mi
3013 Maughan Heights Trl Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2386	$5,000	$2.10	0d	1	0.76mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	6d	1	0.78mi
2920 Stamford Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,200	$1.30	45d	1	0.78mi
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	45d	1	0.79mi
4510 Bungalow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,995	$0.95	45d	1	0.87mi
13851 Bonner Bluff Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	2980	$2,130	$0.71	45d	1	0.90mi
3002 Crown Gate Dr Unit 1568481P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2195	$3,345	$1.52	0d	1	0.93mi
12320 Chesney Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$3,500	$1.75	4d	1	0.95mi
3110 Kainer Meadows Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,900	$1.29	9d	1	0.99mi
13426 Sombrero Cay Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2108	$2,300	$1.09	45d	1	1.01mi
2706 Skyview Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2464	$2,200	$0.89	3d	1	1.04mi
13802 Greyfield Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2350	$2,400	$1.02	0d	1	1.08mi
4111 Oakview Creek Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1885	$2,150	$1.14	45d	1	1.26mi
3403 Orchid Trace Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1602	$1,920	$1.20	4d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-20
   price $205,000
4. 2026-04-17
   listed $210,000 Active
5. 2026-04-08
   historical
6. 2026-04-03
   price $225,000
7. 2026-03-27
   historical $2,200
8. 2026-03-25
   price $233,975
9. 2026-02-24
   listed $2,200
10. 2026-02-09
    price $240,775
11. 2026-02-04
    price $244,900
12. 2026-01-17
    price $250,000
13. 2025-12-20
    listed $255,000 Active
14. 2025-08-27
    soldstatus Closed 101-char remark

    Show marketing remark (101 chars)

    3 BEDROOM 1.5 BATH HOME WITH LARGE DEN, FRONT YARD, AND 2 CAR CARPORT. REPAIRS ARE NEEDED. CALL TODAY

15. 2025-08-13
    status Pending 101-char remark

    Show marketing remark (101 chars)

    3 BEDROOM 1.5 BATH HOME WITH LARGE DEN, FRONT YARD, AND 2 CAR CARPORT. REPAIRS ARE NEEDED. CALL TODAY

16. 2025-07-17
    listed $100,000 Active 101-char remark

    Show marketing remark (101 chars)

    3 BEDROOM 1.5 BATH HOME WITH LARGE DEN, FRONT YARD, AND 2 CAR CARPORT. REPAIRS ARE NEEDED. CALL TODAY

17. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,454 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$298/yr (+$25/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,454
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,263
• − Management: −$2,263
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $1,837
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$441
• After-tax cash flow: $4,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+105.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Rental Removed $2,200 Avail
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $233,975 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed for Rent $2,200 Avail
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $240,775 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-20 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,454 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.