158 Iron Gate Cir · Port Orange, FL 32129

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1983 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

No lot rent and no HOA! Enjoy affordable Florida living in this beautifully updated 2 bedroom manufactured home located in desirable Port Orange. Offered fully furnished, this property is truly move-in ready and ideal as a primary residence, vacation home, or investment opportunity. Recent upgrades include a brand-new kitchen, new roof, new water heater, and new interior ceilings. The open-concept floor plan is light, bright, and welcoming. Conveniently located just minutes from the river and only 3 miles to the beach, with easy access to shopping, dining, and major roadways. Well-maintained, affordable, and perfectly situated to enjoy the best of Florida living. All information recorded in

Key facts

• No lot rent
• New water heater
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• NO LOT RENT
• NO HOA
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW INTERIOR CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#131 in FL, #1,957 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D+, commute D+.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 247 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,975 (3.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-18,768
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-18,162
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32129

• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 247
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,478/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $245	+0% $199	+5% $152	+10% $105
Rent	-10% $73	-5% $136	+0% $199	+5% $261	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $241	base $199	+0.5pp $156	+1.0pp $112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1152 Old Hammock Rd Unit 1 Port Orange, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,295	$2.16	24d	1	0.26mi
980 Canal View Blvd Port Orange, FL	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,448	$1.41	24d	2	0.39mi
1025 Eagle Lake Trl Port Orange, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,185	$2.06	24d	2	0.52mi
1206 Deer Springs Rd Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,625	$1.53	15d	1	0.54mi
1010 N Swallow Tail Dr Port Orange, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,574	$1.76	11d	16	0.82mi
958 Village Trl Port Orange, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,455	$1.88	11d	12	0.90mi
4211 New Haven Ct Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	24d	1	1.03mi
1154 Ashland Ct Port Orange, FL	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,795	$1.61	15d	1	1.06mi
940 Village Trl Unit 4-306 Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	1006	$2,000	$1.99	15d	1	1.08mi
5609 Victoria Gardens Blvd Port Orange, FL	2.0	1.0–1.5	1050	$1,600	$1.52	24d	7	1.11mi
3835 Clyde Morris Blvd Port Orange, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,012	$1.99	11d	17	1.11mi
4801 Clyde Morris Blvd Port Orange, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,376	$2.39	24d	5	1.16mi
12 Downing Dr Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,599	$1.74	15d	1	1.19mi
1270 Reed Canal Rd Port Orange, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$1,746	$1.74	11d	29	1.31mi
1401 Reed Canal Rd Port Orange, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$1,856	$1.78	15d	25	1.40mi
3307 Oak Trail Run #7 Port Orange, FL	2.0	2.0	910	$1,650	$1.81	24d	1	1.42mi
3780 Clyde Morris Blvd Port Orange, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$1,369	$1.30	11d	12	1.43mi
1645 Dunlawton Ave Port Orange, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$1,593	$1.78	11d	26	1.47mi
3900 Yorktowne Blvd Port Orange, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$1,606	$1.56	11d	19	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-10
   listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,478 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,478 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,478
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,526
• − Management: −$1,526
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$321
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$77
• After-tax cash flow: $2,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port Orange

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #1957

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Orange, FL
• County: Volusia County · 556,871 people
• City population: 75,051
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,195
• Household income: $67,924
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.13%
• Current HPI: 310.0285
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.71%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — Daytona MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $165,000 Daytona MLS

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,478 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.