404 Nelson St · Yoakum, TX 77995

$215,000

None bd · None ba · 964 sqft · Townhouse public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1950 7,501 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

For the Investor or the Homeowner looking for secondary income. This Duplex consist of a downstairs and upstairs apartment. Each unit has 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, one kitchen and a living room. The Duplex is in good condition and will have low-cost maintenance since it has recently been remodeled and updated with such items as: electrical, some new mini-split units (some window units remain), new siding, insulation, new windows, and foundation leveling. There is a two-car garage in back with W/ D hookups in each side; they are separated by a dividing wall, giving each unit their own mini storage unit. The Downstairs apartment is 964 sq ft, has a kitchen, dining room, living room, it has been remodeled in all rooms expect the bathroom. The Upstairs apartment is 868 sq ft has a kitchen, (eat in kitchen), full appliances in kitchen, refrigerator, stove, microwave, 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a living room. Upstairs has its own outside access. Call for current rents. Minimum 24-hour notice required for showings. Proof of funds required. See floor plans in pictures.

Key facts

• Foundation leveling
• Recently remodeled
• New siding

Tags

• RECENTLY REMODELED
• NEW SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS
• FOUNDATION LEVELING
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• W D HOOKUPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a townhouse listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-461 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (37.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#494 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Yoakum ISD (town): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #278 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9 units permitted in DeWitt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeWitt County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,578 (37.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.19%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-64,124
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-93,350
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77995

• Home prices YoY: -20.5%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,198/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,983

Max offer price $133,578

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-339	-5% $-400	+0% $-461	+5% $-522	+10% $-583
Rent	-10% $-572	-5% $-516	+0% $-461	+5% $-406	+10% $-350
Rate	-1.0pp $-353	-0.5pp $-406	base $-461	+0.5pp $-517	+1.0pp $-573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
123 W May St Yoakum, TX	1.0	1.0	649	$1,400	$2.16	44d	1	0.20mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $215,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $215,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-01-19
    listed $215,000 Active 1068-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

    For the Investor or the Homeowner looking for secondary income. This Duplex consist of a downstairs and upstairs apartment. Each unit has 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, one kitchen and a living room. The Duplex is in good condition and will have low-cost maintenance since it has recently been remodeled and updated with such items as: electrical, some new mini-split units (some window units remain), new siding, insulation, new windows, and foundation leveling. There is a two-car garage in back with W/ D hookups in each side; they are separated by a dividing wall, giving each unit their own mini storage unit. The Downstairs apartment is 964 sq ft, has a kitchen, dining room, living room, it has been remodeled in all rooms expect the bathroom. The Upstairs apartment is 868 sq ft has a kitchen, (eat in kitchen), full appliances in kitchen, refrigerator, stove, microwave, 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and a living room. Upstairs has its own outside access. Call for current rents. Minimum 24-hour notice required for showings. Proof of funds required. See floor plans in pictures.

18. 2022-01-20
    historical
19. 2021-09-21
    status Active
20. 2021-09-14
    status Pending
21. 2021-08-19
    price $104,900
22. 2021-08-17
    status Active
23. 2021-08-11
    historical
24. 2021-02-11
    listed $119,900 Active
25. 2017-02-16
    soldstatus
26. 2013-10-29
    soldstatus
27. 2005-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,198 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,198 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$4,198
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$9,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,270
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yoakum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846620
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,854
• Composite: 37.9/100
• National rank: #4315
• State rank: #278 of 826 in TX

Livability — Yoakum

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #9889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yoakum, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,244

Population outlook (DeWitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,271 people
• By 2030: 22,953 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 24,396 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 25,921 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 29,672 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 29,516 · +32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 14% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeWitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+63.8 2012: R+55.1 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.35%
• Current HPI: 179.2583
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+79.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Listed $215,000 CTXMLS
• 2022-01-20 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2021-09-21 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2021-09-14 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2021-08-19 Price Changed $104,900 CTXMLS
• 2021-08-17 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2021-08-11 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2021-02-11 Listed $119,900 CTXMLS
• 2017-02-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,198 · +31.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.