28 Melken Ct Unit 7G · Carney, MD 21236

$238,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · Townhouse public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1974 Est $236k · at est. $137/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $137 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (dogs and cats); Ground rent paid annually; Road maintenance responsibility handled by HOA
• HOA & community: Monthly condo/coop fee of $95 (covers trash, water, snow removal); Association recreation fee (annual) of $375; HOA professionally managed off-site; Community amenities include outdoor pool; pool membership available

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water; Natural gas heating fuel; Cable TV available; Broadband and cable internet
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Excellent condition; Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Double-hung windows; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Daylight, full and improved basement with interior access and outside/rear entrances; Basement is heated and includes sump pump, rough bath plumbing and space for finished rooms
• Exterior features: Sidewalks; Backs to parkland; Cul-de-sac location; Landscaped areas; No-thru street; Partly wooded; Rear yard; Community in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven/range; Stove; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level; Master bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning with heat pump(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast area; Separate formal dining room; Combination kitchen and dining; Kitchen island; Galley kitchen section; Family room; Tub with shower; Crown moldings; Traditional floor plan; Window treatments; Six-panel and storm doors; Drywall walls and ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry access on main, lower and basement levels; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($789/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.5% in Carney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#73 in MD, #2,656 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D+, crime D-.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Perry Hall Elementary (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #238 of 860 statewide, top 29%, 443 students, 48% FRL); Perry Hall Middle (math 15% / reading 46%, grade F, #64 of 225 statewide, top 28%, 1,754 students, 40% FRL); Perry Hall High (math 19% / reading 57%, grade F, #137 of 222 statewide, top 62%, 2,029 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask is 169% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $239k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,179 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Burnsway Ct Unit 9E	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,206 (0%)	6mo	$255,000	$211	91
11 Lerner Ct Unit 33I	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	4mo	$236,000	$196	82
8560 Hydra Ln Unit 11K	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	7mo	$236,000	$182	74
20 Melken Unit 7C	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-12%)	7mo	$236,000	$223	71
11 Dunnett Ct Unit 4F	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+8%)	7mo	$231,000	$178	68
13 Pawleys Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	13mo	$230,000	$191	68
15 Beyda Ct Unit 29H	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+6%)	12mo	$245,000	$191	64
3436 Santee Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,206 (0%)	14mo	$177,000	$147	61
14 Pickens	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,356 (+12%)	1mo	$245,000	$181	59
3754 Foxford Stream Rd	0.42mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,360 (+13%)	3mo	$315,000	$232	41
8 Congaree Ct	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-12%)	12mo	$230,000	$218	40
8213 Mitnick Rd	0.53mi	3/3.5	1,056 (-12%)	11mo	$250,000	$237	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-28,927
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $4,347
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21236

• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,292 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,058/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$137
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,209

Max offer price $238,999

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $133	+0% $66	+5% $-2	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-25	+0% $66	+5% $156	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $127	base $66	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8552 Hydra Ln Unit 11G Nottingham, MD	4.0	2.0	1296	$2,872	$2.22	19d	1	0.09mi
8507 Gradien Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,100	$1.99	25d	1	0.12mi
55 Insley Way Nottingham, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	820	$1,900	$2.32	14d	15	0.18mi
9 Robinway Ct Unit 25E Nottingham, MD	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,750	$1.83	45d	1	0.27mi
8334 Tapu Ct Nottingham, MD	3.0	2.5	1302	$2,100	$1.61	16d	1	0.28mi
21 Monhegan Ct Unit 28B Nottingham, MD	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,900	$1.32	45d	1	0.37mi
2 Durness Ct Unit 30I Nottingham, MD	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,100	$1.45	45d	1	0.37mi
3754 Foxford Stream Rd Nottingham, MD	4.0	4.0	1360	$2,800	$2.06	45d	1	0.42mi
53 Bayberry Rd Parkville, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1127	$2,433	$2.16	0d	8	0.43mi
8501 Walther Blvd Nottingham, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	780	$1,629	$2.09	0d	21	0.49mi
1 Waldmann Mill Ct Nottingham, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1076	$2,249	$2.09	0d	11	0.49mi
9730 Red Clover Ct Parkville, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,200	$1.72	45d	1	0.67mi
4219 Slater Ave Nottingham, MD	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,000	$1.70	45d	1	0.68mi
8818 Blairwood Rd Nottingham, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$1,649	$1.83	0d	42	0.73mi
4236 Slater Ave Nottingham, MD	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,500	$1.97	4d	1	0.75mi
11 Springtowne Cir Parkville, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	819	$1,947	$2.38	0d	21	0.89mi
7935 Belridge Rd Nottingham, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	974	$2,213	$2.27	0d	19	0.97mi
9702 Oakdale Ave Parkville, MD	4.0	2.0	1188	$2,000	$1.68	45d	1	1.06mi
9608 9th Ave Parkville, MD	3.0	1.5	1040	$2,200	$2.12	7d	1	1.10mi
3 Sagebrush Ct Nottingham, MD	3.0	2.0	1395	$2,100	$1.51	45d	1	1.17mi
105 Bourbon Ct Parkville, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,150	$1.63	45d	1	1.22mi
9300 Carney Ave Unit A Parkville, MD	2.0	1.0	1392	$1,300	$0.93	45d	1	1.32mi
2908 5th Ave Parkville, MD	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,950	$1.55	45d	1	1.34mi
3800 Meghan Dr Unit 3C Nottingham, MD	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,100	$1.52	7d	1	1.42mi
4335 Bedrock Cir Nottingham, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$2,679	$3.02	0d	14	1.45mi
1 Durban Ct Nottingham, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$2,520	$2.52	0d	23	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $137 · $1,644/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $238,999 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,999 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,999 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $238,999 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   listed $238,999 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,058 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,058 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,058
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,200
• − Management: −$2,200
• − HOA: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$3,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$753
• After-tax cash flow: $1,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Carney

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #2656

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carney, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 65,010
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 39,514
• Household income: $95,149
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1476.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 19% Asian 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.43%
• Current HPI: 244.9907
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.34%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+182.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Coming Soon $238,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-05-27 Sold (MLS) $83,500 MRIS
• 2003-03-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-03-07 Listed $89,000 MRIS
• 2000-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-13 Sold (MLS) $84,000 MRIS
• 2000-07-22 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-06-20 Listed $84,500 MRIS
• 1994-12-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 1994-12-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 1994-06-01 Listed — MRIS
• 1994-06-01 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,058 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.