17837 Lionheart Rd · Deerwood, TX 77306

$252,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · Land · 75 Days on market

Built 2026 0.26 ac lot $166/sqft · 5% above area Est $240k · 5% over $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The charming Fresno plan boasts a smartly designed layout with plenty of entertaining and private living space. At the heart of the home, an open-concept layout includes a great room, a casual dining area and a spacious kitchen boasting a center island and pantry. Off the kitchen, you’ll enjoy access to three inviting secondary bedrooms, a full hall bath and a two-bay garage. Toward the back of the home, a secluded primary suite comes with a roomy walk-in closet and private bath.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $253k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 34% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $199,967 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.69%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,423
• List price: $252,900
• Delta: 5.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-54,804
• Equity at exit: $37,708

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-65,353
• Equity at exit: $21,866

Cash invested: $70,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,326
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,794/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,276

Max offer price $221,356

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-43	-5% $-131	+0% $-218	+5% $-305	+10% $-393
Rent	-10% $-376	-5% $-297	+0% $-218	+5% $-139	+10% $-60
Rate	-1.0pp $-91	-0.5pp $-154	base $-218	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,225
• Closing costs: $7,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	45d	1	0.40mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	12d	1	0.42mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	9d	1	1.14mi
308 Kinsman Rd Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,650	$1.18	45d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $252,900 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $252,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 500-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $252,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $252,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,900 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $252,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $252,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $252,900 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,900 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $252,900 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $252,900 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $252,900 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    listed $252,900 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    The charming Fresno plan boasts a smartly designed layout with plenty of entertaining and private living space. At the heart of the home, an open-concept layout includes a great room, a casual dining area and a spacious kitchen boasting a center island and pantry. Off the kitchen, you’ll enjoy access to three inviting secondary bedrooms, a full hall bath and a two-bay garage. Toward the back of the home, a secluded primary suite comes with a roomy walk-in closet and private bath.

17. 2026-04-02
    price $252,900 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    The charming Fresno plan boasts a smartly designed layout with plenty of entertaining and private living space. At the heart of the home, an open-concept layout includes a great room-with access to an optional covered patio-a casual dining area and a spacious kitchen boasting a center island and pantry. Off the kitchen, you'll enjoy access to three inviting secondary bedrooms, a full hall bath and a two-bay garage. Toward the back of the home, a secluded primary suite comes with a roomy walk-in closet and private bath.

18. 2026-03-22
    listed $257,900 Active 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    The charming Fresno plan boasts a smartly designed layout with plenty of entertaining and private living space. At the heart of the home, an open-concept layout includes a great room-with access to an optional covered patio-a casual dining area and a spacious kitchen boasting a center island and pantry. Off the kitchen, you'll enjoy access to three inviting secondary bedrooms, a full hall bath and a two-bay garage. Toward the back of the home, a secluded primary suite comes with a roomy walk-in closet and private bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,166
• − Property taxes: −$3,794
• − Insurance: −$1,264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,357
• Taxable loss: −$7,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,686
• After-tax cash flow: $-930/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $252,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $252,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Listed $257,900 Zillow

Property tax history

-30.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · -30.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.