207 Free Rein #1 · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$724,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,232 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1984 9,077 sqft lot $224/sqft · 24% below area Est $948k · 24% under $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 207 Free Rein, Unit 1 — an exceptional residence in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, just moments from the sparkling shores of Lake LBJ. Offering 3,232 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this beautifully appointed home blends sophistication with the relaxed charm of Texas Hill Country living. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 3.5 baths, the open-concept floor plan is ideal for both everyday comfort and effortless entertaining. Expansive living areas are filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The well-designed kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, new counter tops, and a seamless flow into the main living area. The primary suite is a true retreat, offering privacy, generous proportions, and access to the private backyard pool! Each secondary bedroom includes its own en-suite bath and sitting areas, providing comfort and convenience for guests or family. A thoughtfully placed half bath serves the main living areas. Outdoor living invites you to unwind and enjoy peaceful Hill Country surroundings — perfect for morning coffee or poolside gatherings . Located within the sought-after Horseshoe Bay community, residents enjoy close proximity to world-class golf, marina access, dining, and resort-style amenities (membership required). Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or a refined weekend escape, this property delivers space, comfort, and an exceptional lifestyle in one of the Hill Country’s most desirable lake communities.

Key facts

• En-suite bath
• World-class golf
• Outdoor living

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• WELL-DESIGNED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD POOL
• EN-SUITE BATH
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• WORLD-CLASS GOLF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath multifamily listed at $724k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $500k (30.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $439k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $439k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,388/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 45% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($659k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $438,800 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.51%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $947,826
• List price: $724,000
• Delta: -23.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-69,249
• Equity at exit: $245,104

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-31,107
• Equity at exit: $324,137

Cash invested: $202,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 27.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,388 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,797
• Tax from tax record: −$606 /mo · $7,273/yr
• Insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$921
• Net cashflow: $-1,268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,993

Max offer price $500,015

Occupancy floor —

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	1.5	$2,194
1× unit	3	2	$2,194
Total (2 units)			$4,388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $181,000
• Closing costs: $21,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Fire Dance Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	2416	$3,800	$1.57	43d	1	0.26mi
415 Horseshoe Bay North Blvd Unit 1 Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	4.5	2375	$3,500	$1.47	43d	1	0.57mi
820 Broken Arrow Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.5	3328	$4,590	$1.38	43d	1	0.68mi
717 Indian Paint Blvd Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.5	2742	$3,650	$1.33	23d	1	0.73mi
1301 The CPE Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	4.5	3682	$6,500	$1.77	14d	1	0.84mi
2805 Aurora Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.5	3916	$4,000	$1.02	23d	1	1.03mi
102 Prairie Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,700	$1.25	43d	1	1.18mi
533 Lighthouse Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	2500	$5,000	$2.00	12d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $724,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $724,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $724,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $724,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $724,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $724,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $724,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $724,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $724,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $724,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $724,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $724,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $724,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $724,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $724,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $724,000 Active 91 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    price $724,000 1521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1520 chars)

    Welcome to 207 Free Rein, Unit 1 — an exceptional residence in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, just moments from the sparkling shores of Lake LBJ. Offering 3,232 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this beautifully appointed home blends sophistication with the relaxed charm of Texas Hill Country living. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 3.5 baths, the open-concept floor plan is ideal for both everyday comfort and effortless entertaining. Expansive living areas are filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The well-designed kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, new countertops, and a seamless flow into the main living area. The primary suite is a true retreat, offering privacy, generous proportions, and access to the private backyard pool! Each secondary bedroom includes its own en-suite bath and sitting areas, providing comfort and convenience for guests or family. A thoughtfully placed half bath serves the main living areas. Outdoor living invites you to unwind and enjoy peaceful Hill Country surroundings — perfect for morning coffee or poolside gatherings . Located within the sought-after Horseshoe Bay community, residents enjoy close proximity to world-class golf, marina access, dining, and resort-style amenities (membership required). Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or a refined weekend escape, this property delivers space, comfort, and an exceptional lifestyle in one of the Hill Country’s most desirable lake communities.

18. 2026-03-19
    price $724,000 1520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1520 chars)

    Welcome to 207 Free Rein, Unit 1 — an exceptional residence in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, just moments from the sparkling shores of Lake LBJ. Offering 3,232 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this beautifully appointed home blends sophistication with the relaxed charm of Texas Hill Country living. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 3.5 baths, the open-concept floor plan is ideal for both everyday comfort and effortless entertaining. Expansive living areas are filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The well-designed kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, new countertops, and a seamless flow into the main living area. The primary suite is a true retreat, offering privacy, generous proportions, and access to the private backyard pool! Each secondary bedroom includes its own en-suite bath and sitting areas, providing comfort and convenience for guests or family. A thoughtfully placed half bath serves the main living areas. Outdoor living invites you to unwind and enjoy peaceful Hill Country surroundings — perfect for morning coffee or poolside gatherings . Located within the sought-after Horseshoe Bay community, residents enjoy close proximity to world-class golf, marina access, dining, and resort-style amenities (membership required). Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or a refined weekend escape, this property delivers space, comfort, and an exceptional lifestyle in one of the Hill Country’s most desirable lake communities.

19. 2026-02-28
    listed $754,000 Active 1521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1521 chars)

    Welcome to 207 Free Rein, Unit 1 — an exceptional residence in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, just moments from the sparkling shores of Lake LBJ. Offering 3,232 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this beautifully appointed home blends sophistication with the relaxed charm of Texas Hill Country living. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 3.5 baths, the open-concept floor plan is ideal for both everyday comfort and effortless entertaining. Expansive living areas are filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The well-designed kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, new counter tops, and a seamless flow into the main living area. The primary suite is a true retreat, offering privacy, generous proportions, and access to the private backyard pool! Each secondary bedroom includes its own en-suite bath and sitting areas, providing comfort and convenience for guests or family. A thoughtfully placed half bath serves the main living areas. Outdoor living invites you to unwind and enjoy peaceful Hill Country surroundings — perfect for morning coffee or poolside gatherings . Located within the sought-after Horseshoe Bay community, residents enjoy close proximity to world-class golf, marina access, dining, and resort-style amenities (membership required). Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or a refined weekend escape, this property delivers space, comfort, and an exceptional lifestyle in one of the Hill Country’s most desirable lake communities.

20. 2026-02-25
    listed $754,000 Active 1520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1520 chars)

    Welcome to 207 Free Rein, Unit 1 — an exceptional residence in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, just moments from the sparkling shores of Lake LBJ. Offering 3,232 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this beautifully appointed home blends sophistication with the relaxed charm of Texas Hill Country living. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 3.5 baths, the open-concept floor plan is ideal for both everyday comfort and effortless entertaining. Expansive living areas are filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The well-designed kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, new countertops, and a seamless flow into the main living area. The primary suite is a true retreat, offering privacy, generous proportions, and access to the private backyard pool! Each secondary bedroom includes its own en-suite bath and sitting areas, providing comfort and convenience for guests or family. A thoughtfully placed half bath serves the main living areas. Outdoor living invites you to unwind and enjoy peaceful Hill Country surroundings — perfect for morning coffee or poolside gatherings . Located within the sought-after Horseshoe Bay community, residents enjoy close proximity to world-class golf, marina access, dining, and resort-style amenities (membership required). Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or a refined weekend escape, this property delivers space, comfort, and an exceptional lifestyle in one of the Hill Country’s most desirable lake communities.

21. 2026-01-07
    soldstatus
22. 2008-02-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,273 · $606/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,249 · $1,104/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,977/yr (+$498/mo · 82.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,555
• − Property taxes: −$7,273
• − Insurance: −$3,620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,212
• − Management: −$4,212
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$21,062
• Taxable loss: −$28,639
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,873
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $724,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $724,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-28 Listed $754,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $754,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,273 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.