107 E North St · Carlisle, KY 40311

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,419 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

7,405 sqft lot Est $163k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0

Listing remarks

Very nice older home with several updates on a quiet one way street. Lots of really nice woodwork through out. Off street parking near the old charming carriage house and still enough room to have a garden if you so choose. Metal roof installed in 2023, an electric water heater that appears to be new as well.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Off street parking
• Room for a garden

Tags

• OFF STREET PARKING
• CHARMING CARRIAGE HOUSE
• METAL ROOF
• ELECTRIC WATER HEATER
• ROOM FOR A GARDEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; One and one half stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Stone foundation; Metal roof; Built area approximately 1,400
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Neighborhood view

Interior

• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace; Natural gas heating; Zoned heating
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.7% in Carlisle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#349 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nicholas County (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #132 of 165 in KY (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Nicholas County Elementary School (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #477 of 676 statewide, top 71%, 664 students, 71% FRL); Nicholas County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 455 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Nicholas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nicholas County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $185k implies a 585% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $120,708 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,185
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Catherine St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,476 (+4%)	6mo	$181,500	$123	67
100 Robin Ln	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,325 (-7%)	13mo	$168,000	$127	64
508 E Main St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+7%)	10mo	$170,000	$112	62
315 Kennedy Hts	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,536 (+8%)	18mo	$170,000	$111	60
215 Dorsey Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+5%)	23mo	$62,000	$42	51
426 Dorsey Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,454 (+2%)	18mo	$200,000	$138	51
103 West North St	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,605 (+13%)	23mo	$185,000	$115	51
101 Mockingbird Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,227 (-14%)	2mo	$202,800	$165	51
506 North Locust St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-14%)	23mo	$132,000	$109	49
139 Oriole St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,215 (-14%)	20mo	$160,000	$132	49
248 Moorefield Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-12%)	20mo	$20,000	$16	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $92,238
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $278,046
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40311

• Home prices YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $462/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $161,652

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-80	+0% $-132	+5% $-185	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-180	+0% $-132	+5% $-84	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-39	-0.5pp $-85	base $-132	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $185,000 Active
17. 2025-11-19
    historical
18. 2025-08-12
    price $189,000
19. 2025-05-19
    listed $199,900 Active
20. 1996-08-01
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $462 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,129/yr (+$94/mo · 244.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$462
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$4,965
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $-395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nicholas County
• NCES district ID: 2104470
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $39,178
• Composite: 22.65/100
• National rank: #8056
• State rank: #132 of 165 in KY

Livability — Carlisle

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #16526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlisle, KY
• Population (ZIP): 7,676

Population outlook (Nicholas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,953 people
• By 2030: 6,815 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 6,489 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 6,119 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 5,449 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 4,901 · -29.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nicholas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+24.6 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 282.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+585.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $185,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $189,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $199,900 ImagineMLS
• 1996-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $462 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.