12900 Walden Rd #605 · Conroe, TX 77356

$109,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 618 sqft · Condo · 5 Days on market

Built 1981 Good condition $311/mo HOA · 26% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy resort-style living in this beautifully updated ground-floor condo overlooking the Walden Golf Course! Located in the "18th at Walden" Condominiums, this 1-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 618 square feet of move-in-ready living space with modern finishes throughout. Updates include wood-look tile flooring, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, recessed lighting, and a handsome remodeled bath featuring a custom walk-in tile shower with glass enclosure. The spacious living area opens to a private patio with picturesque golf course views and mature shade trees. Residents will enjoy the amenities provided by "Walden on Lake Conroe Community Improvement District"

Key facts

• Private patio
• Ground-floor condo
• Walden golf course

Tags

• GROUND-FLOOR CONDO
• PRIVATE PATIO
• CUSTOM WALK-IN TILE SHOWER
• WALDEN GOLF COURSE
• JUNIOR OLYMPIC-SIZE POOL
• PICKLEBALL COMPLEX

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of 18th at Walden association; Monthly association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, and grounds maintenance; Association fees cover clubhouse, water, sewer and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Unassigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story; Faces northeast; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Built in 1981; Cement and wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Tennis courts; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $109k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $94k (13.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madeley Ranch El (math 59% / reading 55%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 786 students, 26% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,158 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.03%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-27,553
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-45,341
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$311
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,347

Max offer price $94,158

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-65	+0% $-103	+5% $-140	+10% $-178
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-151	+0% $-103	+5% $-54	+10% $-6
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-75	base $-103	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13151 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	521	$959	$1.84	3d	1	0.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $311 · $3,732/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 679-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $109,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,169
• − Management: −$1,169
• − HOA: −$3,732
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable loss: −$2,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$700
• After-tax cash flow: $-531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready ground-floor condo offers modern finishes and golf course views, with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhance curb appeal and outdoor living space
• Both Painting exterior — Freshen up the exterior and improve curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhance curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Freshen up the exterior and improve curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $109,000 HARMLS