512 Bragg Ln · Roxboro, NC 27541

$340,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2014 1.02 ac lot Est $314k · 8% over $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LIKE BRAND NEW. Beautiful floors, wonderful open kitchen, amazing private yard, in the country yet not too far from everything you would ever need! Location is great, just off the beaten path in a welcoming neighborhood! You will LOVE this house! Don't wait come see it and call this immaculate place home! Wonderful Hurdle Mills Location at 512 Bragg Lane, Hurdle Mills, NC 27541

Key facts

• 1.02 acre lot
• Built 2014
• Listed 10 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $301k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $301k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.5% in Roxboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Person High (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,079 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $340k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,661 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.49%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,896
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Tillburg Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-1%)	19mo	$305,000	$241	79
186 Tillburg Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-1%)	16mo	$314,900	$248	76
38 Bragg Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,233 (-3%)	4mo	$305,000	$247	75
119 Bragg Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,278 (+0%)	16mo	$300,000	$235	72
112 Tillburg Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+7%)	13mo	$305,000	$223	71
236 Bragg Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,218 (-4%)	11mo	$300,000	$246	70
164 Tillburg Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+7%)	12mo	$315,000	$231	70
72 Tillburg Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+13%)	23mo	$357,000	$248	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-37,551
• Equity at exit: $50,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-10,412
• Equity at exit: $29,397

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27541

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,007 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,877/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$631
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,656

Max offer price $340,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $340,000 Active
3. 2026-04-16
   historical $340,000
4. 2019-11-05
   soldstatus $184,900 Closed 382-char remark

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   LIKE BRAND NEW. Beautiful floors, wonderful open kitchen, amazing private yard, in the country yet not too far from everything you would ever need! Location is great, just off the beaten path in a welcoming neighborhood! You will LOVE this house! Don't wait come see it and call this immaculate place home! Wonderful Hurdle Mills Location at 512 Bragg Lane, Hurdle Mills, NC 27541

5. 2019-11-05
   soldstatus $184,900 382-char remark

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   LIKE BRAND NEW. Beautiful floors, wonderful open kitchen, amazing private yard, in the country yet not too far from everything you would ever need! Location is great, just off the beaten path in a welcoming neighborhood! You will LOVE this house! Don't wait come see it and call this immaculate place home! Wonderful Hurdle Mills Location at 512 Bragg Lane, Hurdle Mills, NC 27541

6. 2019-11-05
   soldstatus $185,000

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   LIKE BRAND NEW. Beautiful floors, wonderful open kitchen, amazing private yard, in the country yet not too far from everything you would ever need! Location is great, just off the beaten path in a welcoming neighborhood! You will LOVE this house! Don't wait come see it and call this immaculate place home! Wonderful Hurdle Mills Location at 512 Bragg Lane, Hurdle Mills, NC 27541

7. 2019-09-22
   historical Contingent 382-char remark

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   LIKE BRAND NEW. Beautiful floors, wonderful open kitchen, amazing private yard, in the country yet not too far from everything you would ever need! Location is great, just off the beaten path in a welcoming neighborhood! You will LOVE this house! Don't wait come see it and call this immaculate place home! Wonderful Hurdle Mills Location at 512 Bragg Lane, Hurdle Mills, NC 27541

8. 2019-09-18
   listed $184,900 Active 382-char remark

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   LIKE BRAND NEW. Beautiful floors, wonderful open kitchen, amazing private yard, in the country yet not too far from everything you would ever need! Location is great, just off the beaten path in a welcoming neighborhood! You will LOVE this house! Don't wait come see it and call this immaculate place home! Wonderful Hurdle Mills Location at 512 Bragg Lane, Hurdle Mills, NC 27541

9. 2019-09-18
   listed $184,900 382-char remark

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   LIKE BRAND NEW. Beautiful floors, wonderful open kitchen, amazing private yard, in the country yet not too far from everything you would ever need! Location is great, just off the beaten path in a welcoming neighborhood! You will LOVE this house! Don't wait come see it and call this immaculate place home! Wonderful Hurdle Mills Location at 512 Bragg Lane, Hurdle Mills, NC 27541

10. 2015-02-23
    soldstatus $152,900 Closed 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    New Construction!! Convenient to Hillsborough, Durham, Chapel Hill and Roxboro. Ranch. Family: Cath. ceiling w/ ceiling fan/light combo. Kit: Granite, custom cabinetry, pantry, lazy Susan. Master: Walk in closet, double marble vanities, garden tub. Wood shelving throughout. Frieze carpeting. Brushed nickel hardware/faucets. Framed mirrors in baths. Tax value of land only.

11. 2015-02-23
    soldstatus $152,900 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    New Construction!! Convenient to Hillsborough, Durham, Chapel Hill and Roxboro. Ranch. Family: Cath. ceiling w/ ceiling fan/light combo. Kit: Granite, custom cabinetry, pantry, lazy Susan. Master: Walk in closet, double marble vanities, garden tub. Wood shelving throughout. Frieze carpeting. Brushed nickel hardware/faucets. Framed mirrors in baths. Tax value of land only.

12. 2015-01-06
    historical Contingent 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    New Construction!! Convenient to Hillsborough, Durham, Chapel Hill and Roxboro. Ranch. Family: Cath. ceiling w/ ceiling fan/light combo. Kit: Granite, custom cabinetry, pantry, lazy Susan. Master: Walk in closet, double marble vanities, garden tub. Wood shelving throughout. Frieze carpeting. Brushed nickel hardware/faucets. Framed mirrors in baths. Tax value of land only.

13. 2014-11-19
    listed $152,900 Active 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    New Construction!! Convenient to Hillsborough, Durham, Chapel Hill and Roxboro. Ranch. Family: Cath. ceiling w/ ceiling fan/light combo. Kit: Granite, custom cabinetry, pantry, lazy Susan. Master: Walk in closet, double marble vanities, garden tub. Wood shelving throughout. Frieze carpeting. Brushed nickel hardware/faucets. Framed mirrors in baths. Tax value of land only.

14. 2014-11-18
    listed $152,900 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    New Construction!! Convenient to Hillsborough, Durham, Chapel Hill and Roxboro. Ranch. Family: Cath. ceiling w/ ceiling fan/light combo. Kit: Granite, custom cabinetry, pantry, lazy Susan. Master: Walk in closet, double marble vanities, garden tub. Wood shelving throughout. Frieze carpeting. Brushed nickel hardware/faucets. Framed mirrors in baths. Tax value of land only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,877 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,788 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$911/yr (+$76/mo · 48.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$1,877
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,886
• − Management: −$2,886
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$2,410
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$578
• After-tax cash flow: $3,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Person County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,729
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5242
• State rank: #110 of 178 in NC

Livability — Roxboro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #23536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,954
• Population (ZIP): 3,862

Population outlook (Person County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,577 people
• By 2030: 37,847 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,740 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 32,683 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 24,979 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 15,779 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% English 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Person

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.7) · D 37.7% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.7 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.62%
• Current HPI: 253.3751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+122.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $340,000 TMLS
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $340,000 TMLS
• 2019-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-05 Sold (MLS) $184,900 AMLSNC
• 2019-11-05 Sold (MLS) $184,900 TMLS
• 2019-09-22 Contingent — TMLS
• 2019-09-18 Listed $184,900 AMLSNC
• 2019-09-18 Listed $184,900 TMLS
• 2015-02-23 Sold (MLS) $152,900 AMLSNC
• 2015-02-23 Sold (MLS) $152,900 TMLS
• 2015-01-06 Contingent — TMLS
• 2014-11-19 Listed $152,900 TMLS
• 2014-11-18 Listed $152,900 AMLSNC

Property tax history

+22.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,877 · +32.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.