15646 Scolty Reach Ln · Atascocita, TX 77346

$445,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,075 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,669 sqft lot $145/sqft · at area comps Est $484k · 8% under $152/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Cash flow +3.1/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 15646 Scotty Reach Lane, a beautiful 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in a well-established gated community in Humble, Texas. Offering approximately 3,238 square feet, this home features an inviting open-concept layout, updated kitchen, spacious living area, and dedicated office/study ideal for remote work. A spacious game room and oversized theater room provide excellent space for entertaining and family gatherings. Enjoy a fenced backyard, 2-car garage, and nearby community amenities including a family park, playground, dog park, and tennis court. This home is also generator ready for added convenience and peace of mind. Residents enjoy 24/7 roaming security and easy access to major roadways, shopping, and dining. The Blue Lagoon is just a five-minute walk or one-minute drive away. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle in one of Humble’s most desirable gated neighborhoods.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Updated kitchen
• Dedicated office

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• GAME ROOM
• MEDIA ROOM
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $445k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (34.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 3.9% in Atascocita — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Creek El (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 1,125 students, 74% FRL); Woodcreek Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,145 students, 36% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 32% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 897 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11025% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,035 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.78%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $483,852
• List price: $445,000
• Delta: -8.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12818 Firbrae Dr	0.09mi	4/3.5	2,826 (-8%)	1mo	$425,000	$150	81
12810 Raemoir	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,772 (-10%)	3mo	$429,990	$155	73
15626 Beltie Dr	0.12mi	4/3.5	2,727 (-11%)	4mo	$369,850	$136	73
15611 Countesswells Dr	0.36mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,979 (-3%)	2mo	$425,000	$143	71
12526 Sabine Point Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,880 (-6%)	2mo	$379,900	$132	61
15430 Paxton Woods Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,884 (-6%)	4mo	$395,000	$137	61
12607 Pine Savannah Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	3,145 (+2%)	4mo	$480,000	$153	60
12342 Castano Creek Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,630 (-14%)	5mo	$389,000	$148	59
15666 Countesswells Dr	0.43mi	4/3.5	2,714 (-12%)	2mo	$420,000	$155	59
15214 Monal Trie Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,734 (-11%)	2mo	$369,900	$135	52
12510 Bedford Bend Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,843 (-8%)	0mo	$370,000	$130	51
16823 Hammon Woods Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,746 (-11%)	1mo	$415,000	$151	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-131,984
• Equity at exit: $108,398

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-227,009
• Equity at exit: $114,662

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 66 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.1 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $416,450 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 51 d
• This list price: 62% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 897
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$1,208 /mo · $14,502/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$152
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $-1,431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,911

Max offer price $290,035

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,179	-5% $-1,305	+0% $-1,431	+5% $-1,557	+10% $-1,683
Rent	-10% $-1,676	-5% $-1,553	+0% $-1,431	+5% $-1,308	+10% $-1,186
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,207	-0.5pp $-1,317	base $-1,431	+0.5pp $-1,546	+1.0pp $-1,663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15646 Scolty Reach Ln Unit Labs Atascocita, TX	4.0	3.5	3238	$3,700	$1.14	30d	1	0.00mi
12543 Highgrove Springs Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,466	$0.98	7d	1	0.26mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,696	$1.02	42d	1	0.33mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	52d	1	0.37mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	93d	1	0.37mi
15319 Kinord Run Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2634	$2,581	$0.98	21d	1	0.44mi
11927 Fletching Stone Ln Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2817	$3,200	$1.14	35d	1	0.65mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	93d	1	0.94mi
15126 Sequoia Meadow Ct Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2671	$2,595	$0.97	32d	1	0.97mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	50d	1	1.02mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$6,325	$2.40	0d	1	1.02mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,456	$0.92	19d	1	1.03mi
12218 Sunlight Peak Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2218	$2,251	$1.01	42d	1	1.10mi
12923 Palm Leaf Ct Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$1,901	$0.88	7d	1	1.10mi
11347 Needlerock Ct Unit 1310533P Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	3239	$9,388	$2.90	93d	1	1.29mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,136	$0.91	42d	1	1.33mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$5,000	$2.04	7d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail $152/mo · $1,824/yr

• Likely covers: security

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Active 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to 15646 Scotty Reach Lane, a beautiful 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in a well-established gated community in Humble, Texas. Offering approximately 3,238 square feet, this home features an inviting open-concept layout, updated kitchen, spacious living area, and dedicated office/study ideal for remote work. A spacious game room and oversized theater room provide excellent space for entertaining and family gatherings. Enjoy a fenced backyard, 2-car garage, and nearby community amenities including a family park, playground, dog park, and tennis court. This home is also generator ready for added convenience and peace of mind. Residents enjoy 24/7 roaming security and easy access to major roadways, shopping, and dining. The Blue Lagoon is just a five-minute walk or one-minute drive away. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle in one of Humble’s most desirable gated neighborhoods.

2. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to 15646 Scotty Reach Lane, a beautiful 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in a well-established gated community in Humble, Texas. Offering approximately 3,238 square feet, this home features an inviting open-concept layout, updated kitchen, spacious living area, and dedicated office/study ideal for remote work. A spacious game room and oversized theater room provide excellent space for entertaining and family gatherings. Enjoy a fenced backyard, 2-car garage, and nearby community amenities including a family park, playground, dog park, and tennis court. This home is also generator ready for added convenience and peace of mind. Residents enjoy 24/7 roaming security and easy access to major roadways, shopping, and dining. The Blue Lagoon is just a five-minute walk or one-minute drive away. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle in one of Humble’s most desirable gated neighborhoods.

3. 2026-04-28
   price $445,000 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to 15646 Scotty Reach Lane, a beautiful 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in a well-established gated community in Humble, Texas. Offering approximately 3,238 square feet, this home features an inviting open-concept layout, updated kitchen, spacious living area, and dedicated office/study ideal for remote work. A spacious game room and oversized theater room provide excellent space for entertaining and family gatherings. Enjoy a fenced backyard, 2-car garage, and nearby community amenities including a family park, playground, dog park, and tennis court. This home is also generator ready for added convenience and peace of mind. Residents enjoy 24/7 roaming security and easy access to major roadways, shopping, and dining. The Blue Lagoon is just a five-minute walk or one-minute drive away. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle in one of Humble’s most desirable gated neighborhoods.

4. 2026-04-18
   price $466,000 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to 15646 Scotty Reach Lane, a beautiful 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in a well-established gated community in Humble, Texas. Offering approximately 3,238 square feet, this home features an inviting open-concept layout, updated kitchen, spacious living area, and dedicated office/study ideal for remote work. A spacious game room and oversized theater room provide excellent space for entertaining and family gatherings. Enjoy a fenced backyard, 2-car garage, and nearby community amenities including a family park, playground, dog park, and tennis court. This home is also generator ready for added convenience and peace of mind. Residents enjoy 24/7 roaming security and easy access to major roadways, shopping, and dining. The Blue Lagoon is just a five-minute walk or one-minute drive away. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle in one of Humble’s most desirable gated neighborhoods.

5. 2026-03-25
   price $474,000 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to 15646 Scotty Reach Lane, a beautiful 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in a well-established gated community in Humble, Texas. Offering approximately 3,238 square feet, this home features an inviting open-concept layout, updated kitchen, spacious living area, and dedicated office/study ideal for remote work. A spacious game room and oversized theater room provide excellent space for entertaining and family gatherings. Enjoy a fenced backyard, 2-car garage, and nearby community amenities including a family park, playground, dog park, and tennis court. This home is also generator ready for added convenience and peace of mind. Residents enjoy 24/7 roaming security and easy access to major roadways, shopping, and dining. The Blue Lagoon is just a five-minute walk or one-minute drive away. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle in one of Humble’s most desirable gated neighborhoods.

6. 2026-03-17
   listed $4,000
7. 2026-02-19
   listed $480,000 Active 930-char remark

   Show marketing remark (930 chars)

   Welcome to 15646 Scotty Reach Lane, a beautiful 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in a well-established gated community in Humble, Texas. Offering approximately 3,238 square feet, this home features an inviting open-concept layout, updated kitchen, spacious living area, and dedicated office/study ideal for remote work. A spacious game room and oversized theater room provide excellent space for entertaining and family gatherings. Enjoy a fenced backyard, 2-car garage, and nearby community amenities including a family park, playground, dog park, and tennis court. This home is also generator ready for added convenience and peace of mind. Residents enjoy 24/7 roaming security and easy access to major roadways, shopping, and dining. The Blue Lagoon is just a five-minute walk or one-minute drive away. This property offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and lifestyle in one of Humble’s most desirable gated neighborhoods.

8. 2021-12-08
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $14,502 · $1,208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,502 · $1,208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$14,502
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,976
• − Management: −$2,976
• − HOA: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$25,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $15,375–$46,125 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in a gated community offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on exterior trim and cleaning gutters to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ridge Creek El F TX #2,525/4,322 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle Woodcreek Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Humble H S F TX #1,348/1,632 Nat'l #13,542/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $445,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $466,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $474,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed for Rent $4,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $480,000 HARMLS
• 2021-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+70.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,502 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.