20 Berlanga Cir · Hot Springs Village, AR 71909

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 251 Days on market

Built 1990 0.25 ac lot $107/sqft · 27% below area Est $268k · 27% under $115/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your Offers for this Great Investment Opportunity!! Solid, well-built, custom home with great bones and tons of potential in desirable Hot Springs Village! Featuring an updated kitchen, spacious floor plan, and beautifully landscaped lot. Large crawl space with workshop area provides excellent storage and workspace. Home is being sold as is and will benefit from having the carpet replaced, painting, and adding personal touches to make it your own. Seller is entertaining All reasonable offers! New Buyers will pay $2000 buy-in fee.

Key facts

• Workshop area
• Spacious floor plan
• Landscaped lot

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• LANDSCAPED LOT
• WORKSHOP AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.6% in Hot Springs Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jessieville School District (rural): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #60 of 238 in AR (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 766 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.17%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,078
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -27.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Berlanga Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,816 (0%)	0mo	$180,000	$99	100
45 Almazan Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,808 (-0%)	9mo	$275,000	$152	85
80 Almazan Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,854 (+2%)	5mo	$265,000	$143	78
2 Tivisa Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,794 (-1%)	11mo	$256,500	$143	76
46 Monovar Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,874 (+3%)	9mo	$235,000	$125	72
54 Monovar Way	0.35mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,822 (+0%)	7mo	$243,000	$133	70
50 Monovar Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,752 (-4%)	9mo	$185,000	$106	70
9 Mandarina Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,884 (+4%)	2mo	$240,000	$127	59
33 Sierra Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,706 (-6%)	2mo	$249,900	$146	58
10 Meseta Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,682 (-7%)	5mo	$230,000	$137	56
39 Hayuco Way	0.75mi	3/3.0	1,861 (+2%)	6mo	$240,000	$129	52
5 Castellon	0.49mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,610 (-11%)	3mo	$185,000	$115	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,703
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $11,128
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71909

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 766
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,011 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,069/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,656

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Castellon Dr Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	3.0	2414	$2,300	$0.95	21d	1	0.51mi
37 Sierra Dr Unit NA Hot Springs, AR	4.0	2.0	2098	$2,100	$1.00	14d	1	0.63mi
120 Emperado Way Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	1.5	1296	$1,300	$1.00	23d	1	1.00mi
4 Huesca Ln Hot Springs Village, AR	4.0	3.0	1826	$2,500	$1.37	23d	1	1.12mi
6 Tomino Way Hot Springs Village, AR	3.0	1.5	1549	$1,350	$0.87	14d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $195,000 Under Contract 251 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 248 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 245 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 244 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 243 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $195,000 Active 239 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 238 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-03-13
    price $215,000 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Bring your Offers for this Great Investment Opportunity!! Solid, well-built, custom home with great bones and tons of potential in desirable Hot Springs Village! Featuring an updated kitchen, spacious floor plan, and beautifully landscaped lot. Large crawl space with workshop area provides excellent storage and workspace. Home is being sold as is and will benefit from having the carpet replaced, painting, and adding personal touches to make it your own. Seller is entertaining All reasonable offers! New Buyers will pay $2000 buy-in fee.

16. 2026-03-13
    price $215,000 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Bring your Offers for this Great Investment Opportunity!! Solid, well-built, custom home with great bones and tons of potential in desirable Hot Springs Village! Featuring an updated kitchen, spacious floor plan, and beautifully landscaped lot. Large crawl space with workshop area provides excellent storage and workspace. Home is being sold as is and will benefit from having the carpet replaced, painting, and adding personal touches to make it your own. Seller is entertaining All reasonable offers! New Buyers will pay $2000 buy-in fee.

17. 2025-11-07
    price $225,000 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Bring your Offers for this Great Investment Opportunity!! Solid, well-built, custom home with great bones and tons of potential in desirable Hot Springs Village! Featuring an updated kitchen, spacious floor plan, and beautifully landscaped lot. Large crawl space with workshop area provides excellent storage and workspace. Home is being sold as is and will benefit from having the carpet replaced, painting, and adding personal touches to make it your own. Seller is entertaining All reasonable offers! New Buyers will pay $2000 buy-in fee.

18. 2025-11-06
    price $225,000 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Bring your Offers for this Great Investment Opportunity!! Solid, well-built, custom home with great bones and tons of potential in desirable Hot Springs Village! Featuring an updated kitchen, spacious floor plan, and beautifully landscaped lot. Large crawl space with workshop area provides excellent storage and workspace. Home is being sold as is and will benefit from having the carpet replaced, painting, and adding personal touches to make it your own. Seller is entertaining All reasonable offers! New Buyers will pay $2000 buy-in fee.

19. 2025-10-25
    price $249,000 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Bring your Offers for this Great Investment Opportunity!! Solid, well-built, custom home with great bones and tons of potential in desirable Hot Springs Village! Featuring an updated kitchen, spacious floor plan, and beautifully landscaped lot. Large crawl space with workshop area provides excellent storage and workspace. Home is being sold as is and will benefit from having the carpet replaced, painting, and adding personal touches to make it your own. Seller is entertaining All reasonable offers! New Buyers will pay $2000 buy-in fee.

20. 2025-10-24
    price $249,000 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Bring your Offers for this Great Investment Opportunity!! Solid, well-built, custom home with great bones and tons of potential in desirable Hot Springs Village! Featuring an updated kitchen, spacious floor plan, and beautifully landscaped lot. Large crawl space with workshop area provides excellent storage and workspace. Home is being sold as is and will benefit from having the carpet replaced, painting, and adding personal touches to make it your own. Seller is entertaining All reasonable offers! New Buyers will pay $2000 buy-in fee.

21. 2025-10-10
    listed $255,000 Active 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Bring your Offers for this Great Investment Opportunity!! Solid, well-built, custom home with great bones and tons of potential in desirable Hot Springs Village! Featuring an updated kitchen, spacious floor plan, and beautifully landscaped lot. Large crawl space with workshop area provides excellent storage and workspace. Home is being sold as is and will benefit from having the carpet replaced, painting, and adding personal touches to make it your own. Seller is entertaining All reasonable offers! New Buyers will pay $2000 buy-in fee.

22. 2025-10-08
    listed $255,000 New Listing 541-char remark

    Show marketing remark (541 chars)

    Bring your Offers for this Great Investment Opportunity!! Solid, well-built, custom home with great bones and tons of potential in desirable Hot Springs Village! Featuring an updated kitchen, spacious floor plan, and beautifully landscaped lot. Large crawl space with workshop area provides excellent storage and workspace. Home is being sold as is and will benefit from having the carpet replaced, painting, and adding personal touches to make it your own. Seller is entertaining All reasonable offers! New Buyers will pay $2000 buy-in fee.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,248 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$179/yr (+$15/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,069
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $253
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$61
• After-tax cash flow: $3,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jessieville School District
• NCES district ID: 0507920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,066
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5003
• State rank: #60 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs Village

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8970

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs Village, AR
• County: Saline County · 77,216 people
• City population: 18,449
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 18,449
• Household income: $75,433
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 207.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.00%
• Current HPI: 195.9499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $215,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $215,000 HSBOR
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $225,000 CARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $225,000 HSBOR
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $249,000 CARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $249,000 HSBOR
• 2025-10-10 Listed $255,000 HSBOR
• 2025-10-08 Listed $255,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,069 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.