207 Oriole Dr · Eddyville, KY 42038

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $234k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedroom 2 bath close to Lake and Interstate this is great weekend or all year home. Included: All furniture & amp; amenities (excluding the master bedroom suite, washer, and dryer) - Comes with a riding mower stored in the storage building. Highlights: - Newer metal roof - Newer HVAC system Asking $145,000.

Key facts

• Storage building
• Newer metal roof
• Newer hvac system

Tags

• NEWER METAL ROOF
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.7% in Eddyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#174 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lyon County (rural): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lyon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lyon County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $145k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.24%
• DSCR: 2.75
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Oriole Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,328 (-15%)	8mo	$180,000	$136	59
1537 Ky-1055	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,516 (-3%)	10mo	$385,000	$254	58
44 Whipperwill Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+15%)	6mo	$215,000	$120	51
1463 W State Rte 730	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,332 (-15%)	24mo	$200,000	$150	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $56,814
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.77×
• Total profit: $152,872
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42038

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $467/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $1,261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $145,000 Active 320-char remark
17. 2014-11-12
    soldstatus $58,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $467 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,247 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$780/yr (+$65/mo · 167.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$467
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,658
• − Management: −$2,658
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $13,578
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,259
• After-tax cash flow: $11,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lyon County
• NCES district ID: 2103690
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,899
• Composite: 40.94/100
• National rank: #3607
• State rank: #13 of 165 in KY

Livability — Eddyville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #174
• US rank: #8755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,045

Population outlook (Lyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,330 people
• By 2030: 8,308 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 8,196 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 8,069 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 8,131 · -2.4%
• By 2100: 6,856 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 8% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.4) · D 22.7% · R 76.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -53.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.4 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+44.0 2012: R+27.1 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.82%
• Current HPI: 148.5677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+148.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $145,000 FSBO.com
• 2014-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $58,300 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $467 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.