5001 Bay Rd Unit D134 · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$90,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 385 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1994 5,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy resort-style living at Sun Retreats Birch Bay! This 180-day vacation home is the perfect place to slow down, gather with loved ones, and make memories like it’s the ’90s again. Cruise your golf cart to the shops of Birch Bay, walk to the beach through Birch Bay State Park. Better yet stay inside this gated community loaded with amenities, including 3 pools, tennis/pickleball courts, a large clubhouse, sports courts/fields, and RV/tent sites for guests. The park model comes fully furnished and offers flexible sleeping space with a primary bedroom, California room (second bedroom setup), and sleeper sofa (third bedroom). Outside, enjoy one of the park’s most desirable

Key facts

• Gated community
• Rv tent sites
• Large clubhouse

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• 3 POOLS
• TENNIS PICKLEBALL COURTS
• LARGE CLUBHOUSE
• SPORTS COURTS FIELDS
• RV TENT SITES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior exemption: no; Pets: see remarks
• Financial info: Land lease amount; Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Land lease; Park: Sun Retreats Birch Bay; Community clubhouse; Common area; Exercise room; High-speed internet available; Laundry (community); Playground; Pool; Recreational area; Tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking; 4 open parking spaces; RV parking (community)
• Security: Security gate (community); Security gate at site
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric and propane energy sources; Puget Sound Energy (power)
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; Slab foundation
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction; Composition roof; Manufactured after 6/15/1976; Make: KROPF
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl exterior; Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped; Secluded lot; Paved access; Has view; Spa/Hot tub (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Den/Office; Entry; Kitchen without eating space; Living room; Electric fireplace; Ceiling fan(s); Vaulted ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.25%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $30,030
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5001 Bay Rd Unit E27	0.00mi	1/1.0	385 (0%)	6mo	$30,000	$78	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $85,632
• Equity at exit: $81,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.88×
• Total profit: $223,872
• Equity at exit: $174,850

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $634	-5% $603	+0% $572	+5% $541	+10% $510
Rent	-10% $453	-5% $512	+0% $572	+5% $632	+10% $692
Rate	-1.0pp $617	-0.5pp $595	base $572	+0.5pp $549	+1.0pp $525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,451
• − Management: −$1,451
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $5,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,386
• After-tax cash flow: $5,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $90,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $100 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.