8200 Jantzen Rd #228 · Hughson, CA 95357

$139,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured · 45 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition Est $228k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Room to Live, Space to Play Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath corner lot property sitting on the outskirts of the city offering the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and outdoor lifestyle. Located right next to Fox Grove Park, enjoy easy access to family BBQs, fishing, and recreation just steps away. Need room for your toys? This property also features private gated RV and boat parking a rare find. Peaceful setting. Country location. Space for the lifestyle you want. Don't miss this amazing opportunity.

Key facts

• Fox grove park
• Peaceful setting
• Country location

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FOX GROVE PARK
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• COUNTRY LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount listed as $700
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available; No garage
• Utilities: Cable available; 220V in laundry; Private water; Private sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Built in 1975
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Composition roof; Silvercrest manufacturer/make
• Exterior features: Backyard; Landscaped front and back; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Free-standing gas oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Tub; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Porch; Open beam ceiling in family room; Great room living area; Dining and family room combo
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 3.4% in Hughson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#458 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Empire Union Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #398 of 517 in CA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $964 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,315 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.85%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,096
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8200 Jantzen Rd #42	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,565 (-12%)	0mo	$200,000	$128	76
8200 - 2221 Jantzen Rd #180	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (+8%)	21mo	$149,000	$78	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $45,531
• Equity at exit: $20,800

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.26×
• Total profit: $127,491
• Equity at exit: $12,061

Cash invested: $39,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95357

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,092/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $1,069

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,220

Max offer price $139,500

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,875
• Closing costs: $4,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,500 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,500 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,500 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,500 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,500 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,500 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $139,500 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,500 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,500 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,500 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,500 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,500 Active 29 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,814
• − Property taxes: −$2,092
• − Insurance: −$698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,471
• − Management: −$2,471
• − Depreciation: −$4,058
• Taxable income: $11,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,707
• After-tax cash flow: $10,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value increase through cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace light fixtures — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Empire Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0612690
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,808
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8193
• State rank: #398 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hughson

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #458
• US rank: #15641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,283

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 37% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.94%
• Current HPI: 283.9315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B