4338 Williamson Dr · Fort McKinley, OH 45416

$94,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1957 7,841 sqft lot Est $148k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located at 4338 Williamson Dr, Dayton, OH 45416, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath single-family rranch provides approximately 1,384 sq ft of living space. The home features a functional and comfortable layout with well-sized living areas, a practical kitchen space, and generously proportioned bedrooms designed to accommodate a variety of lifestyle needs. Natural light enhances the interior, contributing to a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The property sits within a residential neighborhood setting with yard space that offers opportunities for outdoor enjoyment, gardening, or future customization. Its layout provides flexibility for both everyday living and personalization to suit individual

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Detached one-car garage
• Utilities: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Residential lot (approx. 115 x 68)

Interior

• Kitchen: Main level kitchen (11 x 18)
• Bedrooms: Main level bedroom (11 x 14); Main level bedroom (9 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $94,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.98%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,088
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4321 Saylor St	0.03mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,440 (+4%)	7mo	$170,000	$118	81
3581 Ark Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,376 (-1%)	7mo	$103,000	$75	78
4158 Meadowdale Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+1%)	13mo	$125,000	$90	77
4137 Klepinger Rd	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+1%)	12mo	$76,600	$55	74
4089 Klepinger Rd	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,475 (+7%)	2mo	$90,000	$61	73
3925 Haney Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-8%)	3mo	$137,000	$107	68
4534 N Fairgreen Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,374 (-1%)	1mo	$198,900	$145	65
4018 Klepinger Rd	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-10%)	4mo	$142,000	$114	60
40 N Meadow Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,497 (+8%)	4mo	$189,900	$127	58
4180 Indian Ln	0.48mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-10%)	6mo	$124,900	$100	52
3757 Detroit Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,243 (-10%)	9mo	$146,500	$118	46
4553 Lansmore Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,580 (+14%)	6mo	$34,000	$22	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $7,197
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $35,453
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45416

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,324 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,856/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $876

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4161 Mapleleaf Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	2d	1	0.21mi
4003 Whitestone Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,275	$1.16	44d	1	0.26mi
4132 Natchez Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	991	$1,250	$1.26	3d	1	0.67mi
4527 Channing Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	946	$1,600	$1.69	44d	1	0.79mi
4246 Redonda Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	44d	1	0.86mi
3031 Garvin Rd Unit C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1269	$1,150	$0.91	44d	1	0.90mi
5200 Greencroft Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,200	$1.08	2d	1	1.02mi
5200 Greencroft Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,200	$1.08	21d	1	1.02mi
5610 N Main St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	2d	1	1.07mi
2609 Fairport Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,025	$1.02	2d	1	1.18mi
4303 Drowfield Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	14d	1	1.25mi
132 Burgess Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,130	$1.26	2d	1	1.29mi
148 Burgess Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	1	1.30mi
4916 Copeland Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1515	$1,125	$0.74	11d	1	1.33mi
3668 Castano Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,600	$1.00	2d	1	1.35mi
5261 Bromwick Dr Dayton, OH	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,595	$0.90	44d	1	1.42mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	21d	1	1.45mi
110 Cromwell Pl Unit 5 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,099	$1.10	19d	1	1.45mi
110 Cromwell Pl Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,100	$1.05	2d	1	1.45mi
519 Heather Dr Unit 1C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,095	$1.00	3d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $94,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,856 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,856 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,856
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,271
• − Management: −$1,271
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $2,935
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$704
• After-tax cash flow: $3,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Fort McKinley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort McKinley, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 5,640
• Household income: $46,174
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 18% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.27%
• Current HPI: 173.5938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+374.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $94,900 Dayton MLS
• 2024-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,157,500 Public Records
• 2014-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $34,500 Public Records
• 2013-10-27 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2013-08-23 Listed $16,000 Dayton MLS
• 2013-01-03 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2013-01-01 Listed $15,000 Dayton MLS
• 2012-10-13 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2012-04-13 Listed $29,900 Dayton MLS
• 1986-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,856 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.