4745 Vignette Way · Lake Sarasota, FL 34240

$289,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,758 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2018 2,200 sqft lot $130/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 3BR/2.5BA townhome with 1,758 sq ft under air in desirable Sarasota location! This well-maintained home features an open-concept living and dining area, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen offers modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and a breakfast bar. Upstairs includes a generous primary suite with private bath, plus two additional bedrooms ideal for guests or office space. Enjoy natural light throughout with sliding glass doors leading to a peaceful outdoor area. Additional features include an attached garage, driveway parking, and interior laundry. Low-maintenance living with HOA convenience. Located just minutes from beaches, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Ideal as a primary residence, vacation home, or investment property.

Key facts

• Private bath
• Modern appliances
• Sliding glass doors

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PRIVATE BATH
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• OUTDOOR AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-993/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#365 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.7%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $290k implies a 231% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,679 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-59,517
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-86,699
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34240

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,507 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,504/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$130
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,612

Max offer price $275,286

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $130 · $1,560/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $294,900 Active 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Spacious 3BR/2.5BA townhome with 1,758 sq ft under air in desirable Sarasota location! This well-maintained home features an open-concept living and dining area, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen offers modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and a breakfast bar. Upstairs includes a generous primary suite with private bath, plus two additional bedrooms ideal for guests or office space. Enjoy natural light throughout with sliding glass doors leading to a peaceful outdoor area. Additional features include an attached garage, driveway parking, and interior laundry. Low-maintenance living with HOA convenience. Located just minutes from beaches, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Ideal as a primary residence, vacation home, or investment property.

17. 2017-10-31
    soldstatus $87,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,504 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,504 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$3,504
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,407
• − Management: −$2,407
• − HOA: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$5,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,420
• After-tax cash flow: $428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Sarasota

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #6453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,774
• Household income: $130,148
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 355.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.09%
• Current HPI: 318.5617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.69%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+237.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+50.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,504 · +64.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.