101 Colgan Ave #26 · Santa Rosa, CA 95404

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful new home, offering the perfect balance of comfort, style, and practicality. This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom residence features a thoughtfully designed floor plan and a bright, inviting living space. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, including a gas range, dishwasher, and refrigerator, making meal preparation a breeze. Interior laundry hookups provide added convenience, while the heating and air conditioning system ensures comfort throughout the seasons. Conveniently situated near shopping, restaurants, and freeway access, this home is an excellent opportunity for those seeking modern living in a central location.

Key facts

• Central location
• Gas range
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY HOOKUPS
• HEATING AND AIR CONDITIONING
• CENTRAL LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Space rent currently listed as $0; Land lease amount listed separately as $975
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No; Park: Colgan park

Exterior

• Parking: 2 assigned parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; No on-site power production
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single-wide; New construction
• Construction: Manufacturer: Champion; Skirting: Other
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator; Range hood; Slab countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Range hood; Slab countertops
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

🏗️ New construction. The $169,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $155,120.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,465 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.17%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Colgan Ave #24	0.04mi	2/1.0	560 (0%)	4mo	$155,000	$277	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-14,224
• Equity at exit: $23,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,453
• Equity at exit: $13,412

Cash invested: $43,434 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95404

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,327/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,897

Max offer price $155,120

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,780
• Closing costs: $4,654
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
147 Colgan Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	623	$1,941	$3.12	13d	3	0.08mi
777 Aston Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	635	$1,749	$2.75	13d	1	0.39mi
2146 Bedford St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,900	$2.64	13d	1	0.54mi
2146 Bedford St Unit 2134-211 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$2,075	$2.88	13d	1	0.55mi
2111 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,892	$3.09	13d	8	0.62mi
1020 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,860	$3.21	13d	27	0.67mi
240 Burt St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,563	$3.45	13d	10	0.88mi
445 S E St Unit 20 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	575	$1,795	$3.12	13d	1	0.95mi
1467 Maple Ave Unit 1467 Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	674	$1,750	$2.60	13d	1	1.20mi
750 Apple Creek Ln Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	748	$2,599	$3.47	13d	16	1.24mi
420 Mendocino Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	784	$3,923	$5.00	13d	21	1.36mi
1018 Bellevue Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$1,874	$1.86	13d	1	1.42mi
724 Morgan St Unit 726b Santa Rosa, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,600	$2.67	23d	1	1.43mi
888 4th St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	685	$3,485	$5.08	13d	20	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 664-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $169,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,689
• − Property taxes: −$2,327
• − Insurance: −$5,894
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,102
• − Management: −$2,102
• − Depreciation: −$4,513
• Taxable income: $648
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$156
• After-tax cash flow: $2,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This beautiful new manufactured home offers a well-designed floor plan and modern living in a central location. With good condition and minimal repairs needed, it's an excellent opportunity for those seeking a move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace window treatments — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,011
• Household income: $105,437
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -797.65%
• Current HPI: 244.7593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $169,000 BAREIS