1249 Seth Johnson Dr · Montgomery, AL 36116

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1981 3,920 sqft lot $71/sqft · 22% above area Est $70k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OPEN HOUSE Sunday, May 17th from 2-4! Hosted by Gloria McClain, Realtor. Cute, updated townhome in Seth Johnson ready for new owner!! Beautiful LVP flooring just installed! Plus the interior has been painted a beautiful gray. Great room is spacious and is open to the kitchen. Half bath and laundry room downstairs. Upstairs you will find 3 bedrooms and a full bath. Great starter home, or a great investment as a rental home! 100% financing available if purchased as primary residence. Move in ready! Call today for your personal showing!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1981
• Listed 59 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 293 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $85k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.86%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,769
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 21.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1702 Marlowe Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-0%)	2mo	$25,000	$21	69
4507 Coventry Rd	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,163 (-3%)	1mo	$40,000	$34	66
1214 Seth Johnson Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,102 (-8%)	18mo	$49,500	$45	65
1308 Biscayne Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,148 (-4%)	14mo	$120,900	$105	56
1441 Flamingo Ln	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,283 (+7%)	2mo	$65,000	$51	55
1375 Biscayne Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+11%)	1mo	$50,000	$38	54
4711 Banyan Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,274 (+6%)	23mo	$110,000	$86	49
1518 Flamingo Ln	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,131 (-6%)	9mo	$90,000	$80	48
1330 Buckingham Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,361 (+13%)	16mo	$99,000	$73	32
4608 Rainbow Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+14%)	22mo	$71,500	$52	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $15,802
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $61,666
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36116

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,186 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $502/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $662

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4581 Narrow Lane Rd Montgomery, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$800	$0.92	43d	2	0.21mi
1219 Biscayne Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	1.5	1228	$1,295	$1.05	20d	1	0.50mi
4342 Sunshine Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,250	$0.94	13d	1	0.76mi
3212 Herbert Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,425	$1.21	20d	1	0.95mi
1114 Druid Hills Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1192	$1,250	$1.05	20d	1	1.10mi
2230 Woodley Sq W Montgomery, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$898	$1.00	13d	11	1.12mi
2401 Overhill Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	999	$700	$0.70	20d	1	1.12mi
253 John Morris Ave Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	912	$950	$1.04	20d	1	1.32mi
548 Winston Dr Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.5	1396	$1,000	$0.72	43d	1	1.43mi
3751 Wesley Dr Apt A Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0	1034	$550	$0.53	43d	1	1.46mi
3735 Wesley Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	20d	1	1.48mi
3733 Wesley Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	20d	1	1.49mi
2619 Brantford Pl Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,200	$0.91	43d	1	1.49mi
3723 Wesley Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	20d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $85,000 Active 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE Sunday, May 17th from 2-4! Hosted by Gloria McClain, Realtor. Cute, updated townhome in Seth Johnson ready for new owner!! Beautiful LVP flooring just installed! Plus the interior has been painted a beautiful gray. Great room is spacious and is open to the kitchen. Half bath and laundry room downstairs. Upstairs you will find 3 bedrooms and a full bath. Great starter home, or a great investment as a rental home! 100% financing available if purchased as primary residence. Move in ready! Call today for your personal showing!

17. 2026-02-01
    historical $1,200
18. 2026-01-01
    listed $1,200
19. 2025-09-21
    listed $95,000 Active
20. 2004-04-19
    soldstatus $29,000
21. 2004-02-25
    listed $29,900
22. 2004-01-05
    listed $29,900
23. 2003-09-17
    listed $34,900
24. 2002-12-21
    listed $42,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $502 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $502 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$502
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,138
• − Management: −$1,138
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,791
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$910
• After-tax cash flow: $4,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 190,016 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 45,250
• Household income: $55,160
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2786.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 80% White 12% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.31%
• Current HPI: 151.8598
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $85,000 MAAR
• 2026-02-01 Rental Removed $1,200 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-01-01 Listed for Rent $1,200 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-09-21 Listed $95,000 MAAR
• 2004-04-19 Sold (MLS) $29,000 MAAR
• 2004-02-25 Listed $29,900 MAAR
• 2004-01-05 Listed $29,900 MAAR
• 2003-09-17 Listed $34,900 MAAR
• 2002-12-21 Listed $42,500 MAAR

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $502 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.