294 Lexington Ave · Rochester, NY 14613

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,210 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1921 3,049 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property package for sale consisting of 15 single family homes, newer roofs, replacement windows, and updated mechanics. CofO’s and long term tenants. Feel free to do a drive-by but please don’t bother the tenants. Showings can be scheduled as soon as the EO is lifted but let’s start the conversation now! Listing Broker is owner.

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1921

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $792 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.1% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $37,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.10%
• DSCR: 4.79
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,580
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Leavenworth St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,233 (+2%)	2mo	$72,000	$58	73
451 Lakeview Park	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,326 (+10%)	3mo	$185,000	$140	63
225 Bryan St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,315 (+9%)	3mo	$92,000	$70	62
42 Curtis St	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,287 (+6%)	4mo	$85,000	$66	62
533 Augustine St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,262 (+4%)	5mo	$181,000	$143	60
12 Oriole St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-14%)	3mo	$115,000	$111	60
55 Santee St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,272 (+5%)	1mo	$124,900	$98	56
22 Starling St	0.38mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,344 (+11%)	2mo	$100,000	$74	55
60 Starling St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,034 (-14%)	5mo	$135,000	$131	49
32 Michigan St	0.51mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,081 (-11%)	5mo	$96,000	$89	47
175 Curlew St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-13%)	5mo	$120,000	$114	45
78 Bloss St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+15%)	6mo	$64,000	$46	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $44,017
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.26×
• Total profit: $103,399
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14613

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $651/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $792

Break-even live

Break-even rent $355

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $815	-5% $804	+0% $792	+5% $781	+10% $770
Rent	-10% $685	-5% $739	+0% $792	+5% $846	+10% $900
Rate	-1.0pp $812	-0.5pp $802	base $792	+0.5pp $782	+1.0pp $771

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
265 Driving Park Ave Unit 31 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	810	$1,250	$1.54	44d	1	0.05mi
254 Lexington Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	3d	1	0.05mi
1016 Lake Ave Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	44d	1	0.42mi
1097 Dewey Ave Unit B Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,150	$1.14	15d	1	0.43mi
28-30 Carthage Dr Unit 28 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1415	$1,600	$1.13	24d	1	0.55mi
84 Twin Beeches Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1096	$1,250	$1.14	24d	1	0.61mi
89 Twin Beeches Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1096	$1,250	$1.14	44d	1	0.62mi
76 Avenue A Unit Up Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	796	$1,700	$2.14	44d	1	0.73mi
25 Karnes St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1059	$1,250	$1.18	22d	1	0.76mi
287 Electric Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1297	$1,500	$1.16	3d	1	0.78mi
45 Clay Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	15d	1	0.83mi
52 Lorimer St Unit 03 UP Rear Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	24d	1	0.88mi
85 Cameron St Unit B Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1138	$1,650	$1.45	44d	1	0.94mi
248 Flower City Park Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	4d	1	0.94mi
69 Angle St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	15d	1	0.96mi
116 Ridgeway Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,650	$1.60	3d	1	1.00mi
39 Parkway Apt 1 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	44d	1	1.05mi
230 Pullman Ave Unit 1 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	15d	1	1.14mi
493 Hollenbeck St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	936	$1,275	$1.36	15d	1	1.18mi
658 Smith St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	981	$1,500	$1.53	4d	1	1.35mi
2 Jay St Unit 2 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1252	$1,045	$0.83	44d	1	1.40mi
710-712 Jay St Unit 3 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1252	$895	$0.71	44d	1	1.42mi
629 Jay St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1193	$1,250	$1.05	19d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2025-11-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-05
   price $39,900
3. 2025-08-14
   listed $59,900 Active
4. 2021-01-19
   price $50,667 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Property package for sale consisting of 15 single family homes, newer roofs, replacement windows, and updated mechanics. CofO’s and long term tenants. Feel free to do a drive-by but please don’t bother the tenants. Showings can be scheduled as soon as the EO is lifted but let’s start the conversation now! Listing Broker is owner.

5. 2020-08-05
   soldstatus $50,667 Closed Sale or Rented 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Property package for sale consisting of 15 single family homes, newer roofs, replacement windows, and updated mechanics. CofO’s and long term tenants. Feel free to do a drive-by but please don’t bother the tenants. Showings can be scheduled as soon as the EO is lifted but let’s start the conversation now! Listing Broker is owner.

6. 2020-08-05
   soldstatus $760,000

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Property package for sale consisting of 15 single family homes, newer roofs, replacement windows, and updated mechanics. CofO’s and long term tenants. Feel free to do a drive-by but please don’t bother the tenants. Showings can be scheduled as soon as the EO is lifted but let’s start the conversation now! Listing Broker is owner.

7. 2020-05-21
   status Pending Sale 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Property package for sale consisting of 15 single family homes, newer roofs, replacement windows, and updated mechanics. CofO’s and long term tenants. Feel free to do a drive-by but please don’t bother the tenants. Showings can be scheduled as soon as the EO is lifted but let’s start the conversation now! Listing Broker is owner.

8. 2020-04-01
   listed $795,000 Active 349-char remark

   Show marketing remark (349 chars)

   Property package for sale consisting of 15 single family homes, newer roofs, replacement windows, and updated mechanics. CofO’s and long term tenants. Feel free to do a drive-by but please don’t bother the tenants. Showings can be scheduled as soon as the EO is lifted but let’s start the conversation now! Listing Broker is owner.

9. 2019-05-08
   soldstatus $766,900
10. 2016-01-11
    historical
11. 2015-10-15
    price $38,900
12. 2015-05-13
    listed $39,000 Active
13. 2006-11-22
    soldstatus $416,000
14. 1993-11-15
    soldstatus $34,983

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $663 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$12/yr (+$1/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$651
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,265
• After-tax cash flow: $7,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• City population: 432,803
• Population (ZIP): 14,740

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 22% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 8% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: British 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, India, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.56%
• Current HPI: 274.2485
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+14.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-12 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $39,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $59,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-01-19 Price Changed $50,667 UNYREIS
• 2020-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $760,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-05 Sold (MLS) $50,667 UNYREIS
• 2020-05-21 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2020-04-01 Listed $795,000 UNYREIS
• 2019-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $766,900 Public Records
• 2016-01-11 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2015-10-15 Price Changed $38,900 UNYREIS
• 2015-05-13 Listed $39,000 UNYREIS
• 2006-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $416,000 Public Records
• 1993-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $34,983 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $651 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.