16234 Bergara Bend Dr · Cleveland, TX 77327

$196,590

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $135/sqft · 20% below area Est $247k · 20% under $192/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection in Timbers Edge! Presenting the Idlewood plan with Elevation "H3". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community Association with an annual fee of $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Slab foundation; Built in 2026
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $197k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-559/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $189,854 (3.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,895
• List price: $196,590
• Delta: -20.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16229 Bergara Bend Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	1mo	$235,990	$163	98
16226 Bergara Bend Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-3%)	1mo	$243,990	$172	94
16218 Bergara Bend Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-4%)	1mo	$235,990	$167	93
16246 Bergara Bend Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	0mo	$231,990	$177	79
16206 Bergara Bend Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	1mo	$231,990	$177	78
20807 Olive Leaf St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-1%)	4mo	$225,000	$156	78
21328 Pine Mill Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+1%)	4mo	$195,960	$132	73
21344 Pine Mill Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-3%)	3mo	$222,000	$157	72
16210 Bergara Bend Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	1mo	$256,990	$155	71
16225 Bergara Bend Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	1mo	$260,990	$158	71
20723 Southern Woods Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+3%)	4mo	$215,000	$143	60
21307 Pine Mill Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,591 (+9%)	2mo	$225,000	$141	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-32,739
• Equity at exit: $29,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,628
• Equity at exit: $16,998

Cash invested: $55,045 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1578
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,904 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,031
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$246 /mo · $2,949/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,963

Max offer price $189,854

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $21	+0% $-47	+5% $-114	+10% $-182
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-122	+0% $-47	+5% $29	+10% $104
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $3	base $-47	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,148
• Closing costs: $5,898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	25d	1	0.77mi
14255 Timber Fields Way New Caney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	6d	57	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $196,590 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $196,590 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $196,590 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-05-11
   price $196,590 530-char remark
5. 2026-05-04
   listed $199,990 Active 530-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,012
• − Property taxes: −$2,949
• − Insurance: −$983
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
• − Management: −$1,828
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$5,719
• Taxable loss: −$3,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$906
• After-tax cash flow: $348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 23 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with recent updates, making it move-in ready and ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value.
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances functionality and aesthetics in bathrooms.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances functionality and aesthetics in bathrooms. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $196,590 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $199,990 HARMLS