13 Darcy Dr · Windsor, CA 95492

$158,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Built 1974 Fair condition $127/sqft · 21% below area Est $199k · 21% under ↓ 23% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the heart of the sought-after Shamrock community, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers comfort, functionality, and opportunity. The open-concept living and dining area creates a warm and inviting space, complete with a built-in cabinets that adds both character and convenient storage. The cozy kitchen overlooks a bright sunroom, perfect for relaxing with your morning coffee or enjoying additional living space year-round. An indoor laundry area with ample storage adds everyday convenience. The spacious primary suite features generous closet space and a dedicated sitting vanity area, creating a comfortable and private retreat. The second bedroom is versatile and can easily serve as a home office, guest room, or hobby space. Step outside to a backyard ready for your personal touchideal for creating your own garden oasis or outdoor entertaining area. Residents of the Shamrock community enjoy access to a clubhouse, swimming pool, and a variety of social activities, offering a vibrant and welcoming lifestyle. Don't miss this opportunity to make this inviting home your own!

Key facts

• Indoor laundry area
• Sitting vanity area
• Built-in cabinets

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• BUILT-IN CABINETS
• BRIGHT SUNROOM
• INDOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• SITTING VANITY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.0% in Windsor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#210 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Windsor Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #362 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,780 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.95%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,000
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: -20.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $61,193
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $165,180
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95492

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$198 /mo · $2,370/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$652
• Net cashflow: $1,362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
776 McClelland Dr Windsor, CA	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,900	$2.16	43d	1	0.29mi
9631 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 9631 Windsor, CA	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,375	$2.27	21d	1	0.48mi
1130 Windsor River Rd Windsor, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,200	$3.14	43d	1	0.57mi
10 3rd St Unit 10 Windsor, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,395	$2.40	43d	1	0.84mi
172 Courtyards E Windsor, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,650	$2.70	13d	1	0.85mi
339 Pollard Way Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1158	$4,500	$3.89	13d	1	0.90mi
208 Courtyards E Windsor, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,300	$2.35	13d	1	0.90mi
7924 Ferrari Way Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1476	$3,400	$2.30	43d	1	1.01mi
1011 Ventana Dr Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,400	$3.09	43d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $158,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $158,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $158,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $158,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    price $158,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $168,000 Active 72 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    price $168,000 1112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1112 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of the sought-after Shamrock community, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers comfort, functionality, and opportunity. The open-concept living and dining area creates a warm and inviting space, complete with a built-in cabinets that adds both character and convenient storage. The cozy kitchen overlooks a bright sunroom, perfect for relaxing with your morning coffee or enjoying additional living space year-round. An indoor laundry area with ample storage adds everyday convenience. The spacious primary suite features generous closet space and a dedicated sitting vanity area, creating a comfortable and private retreat. The second bedroom is versatile and can easily serve as a home office, guest room, or hobby space. Step outside to a backyard ready for your personal touchideal for creating your own garden oasis or outdoor entertaining area. Residents of the Shamrock community enjoy access to a clubhouse, swimming pool, and a variety of social activities, offering a vibrant and welcoming lifestyle. Don't miss this opportunity to make this inviting home your own!

19. 2026-03-19
    listed $219,000 Active 1112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1112 chars)

    Nestled in the heart of the sought-after Shamrock community, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers comfort, functionality, and opportunity. The open-concept living and dining area creates a warm and inviting space, complete with a built-in cabinets that adds both character and convenient storage. The cozy kitchen overlooks a bright sunroom, perfect for relaxing with your morning coffee or enjoying additional living space year-round. An indoor laundry area with ample storage adds everyday convenience. The spacious primary suite features generous closet space and a dedicated sitting vanity area, creating a comfortable and private retreat. The second bedroom is versatile and can easily serve as a home office, guest room, or hobby space. Step outside to a backyard ready for your personal touchideal for creating your own garden oasis or outdoor entertaining area. Residents of the Shamrock community enjoy access to a clubhouse, swimming pool, and a variety of social activities, offering a vibrant and welcoming lifestyle. Don't miss this opportunity to make this inviting home your own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,370
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,982
• − Management: −$2,982
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $14,704
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,529
• After-tax cash flow: $12,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, replace outdated flooring, and paint interior walls. Landscaping improvements would also enhance curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — outdated and in poor condition
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and in poor condition
• Major flooring — outdated and in poor condition
• Minor interior walls — some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers
• Resale update bathrooms — modernizing the bathrooms would attract more buyers
• Resale replace flooring — new flooring would make the home more appealing
• Both paint interior walls — improves the home's appearance and value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$45,500–153,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers ↑
• Resale update bathrooms — modernizing the bathrooms would attract more buyers ↑
• Resale replace flooring — new flooring would make the home more appealing ↑
• Both paint interior walls — improves the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Windsor Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600034
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $81,297
• Composite: 25.06/100
• National rank: #7541
• State rank: #362 of 517 in CA

Livability — Windsor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #6671

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Windsor, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 27,429
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 27,429
• Household income: $134,211
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 628.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Native American 4% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 25% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.03%
• Current HPI: 249.6052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $168,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $219,000 BAREIS