2403 Fir Trl · Hayes, MI 48625

$46,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 476 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1950 0.49 ac lot $99/sqft · 12% below area Est $53k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Tiny Home Living in Northern Michigan. This 1-bedroom cottage offers the simplicity and efficiency today’s buyers are looking for, cinder block framing, shingled roof, newer doors, and most windows already updated. Compact yet functional, the layout is ideal for minimalist living, a low-maintenance year-round residence, or a weekend Up North escape. Set on a spacious 100 x 212 lot, there is room to expand, garden, park recreational vehicles, or simply enjoy outdoor space that is hard to find with most tiny homes. Natural gas provides efficient heating, as does the brand new furnace, keeping utility costs manageable. Located close to state land for ORV trails and outdoor recreation, this property combines affordability, freedom, and adventure. Finish the interior to reflect your style and create a personalized small-space retreat designed around how you want to live.

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Newer doors
• Spacious lot

Tags

• CINDER BLOCK FRAMING
• SHINGLED ROOF
• NEWER DOORS
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $47k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($777 rent vs $47k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harrison Community Schools (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #457 of 540 in MI (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Clare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $324 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clare County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $47k implies a 291% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,679 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.51%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,014
• List price: $46,900
• Delta: -11.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1959 Jill Janet St	0.43mi	1/1.0	480 (+1%)	6mo	$74,900	$156	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $13,648
• Equity at exit: $6,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $39,201
• Equity at exit: $4,055

Cash invested: $13,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48625

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $777 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$246
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $170/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $354

Max offer price $46,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,725
• Closing costs: $1,407
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $46,900 Pending 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $46,900 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $46,900 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $46,900 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $46,900 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $46,900 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $46,900 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $46,900 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $46,900 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $46,900 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $47,500 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $47,500 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $47,500 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,500 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,500 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-04-07
    status Active 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Charming Tiny Home Living in Northern Michigan. This 1-bedroom cottage offers the simplicity and efficiency today’s buyers are looking for, cinder block framing, shingled roof, newer doors, and most windows already updated. Compact yet functional, the layout is ideal for minimalist living, a low-maintenance year-round residence, or a weekend Up North escape. Set on a spacious 100 x 212 lot, there is room to expand, garden, park recreational vehicles, or simply enjoy outdoor space that is hard to find with most tiny homes. Natural gas provides efficient heating, as does the brand new furnace, keeping utility costs manageable. Located close to state land for ORV trails and outdoor recreation, this property combines affordability, freedom, and adventure. Finish the interior to reflect your style and create a personalized small-space retreat designed around how you want to live.

18. 2026-03-16
    historical Accepting Backup Offers 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Charming Tiny Home Living in Northern Michigan. This 1-bedroom cottage offers the simplicity and efficiency today’s buyers are looking for, cinder block framing, shingled roof, newer doors, and most windows already updated. Compact yet functional, the layout is ideal for minimalist living, a low-maintenance year-round residence, or a weekend Up North escape. Set on a spacious 100 x 212 lot, there is room to expand, garden, park recreational vehicles, or simply enjoy outdoor space that is hard to find with most tiny homes. Natural gas provides efficient heating, as does the brand new furnace, keeping utility costs manageable. Located close to state land for ORV trails and outdoor recreation, this property combines affordability, freedom, and adventure. Finish the interior to reflect your style and create a personalized small-space retreat designed around how you want to live.

19. 2026-02-27
    listed $47,500 Active 893-char remark

    Show marketing remark (893 chars)

    Charming Tiny Home Living in Northern Michigan. This 1-bedroom cottage offers the simplicity and efficiency today’s buyers are looking for, cinder block framing, shingled roof, newer doors, and most windows already updated. Compact yet functional, the layout is ideal for minimalist living, a low-maintenance year-round residence, or a weekend Up North escape. Set on a spacious 100 x 212 lot, there is room to expand, garden, park recreational vehicles, or simply enjoy outdoor space that is hard to find with most tiny homes. Natural gas provides efficient heating, as does the brand new furnace, keeping utility costs manageable. Located close to state land for ORV trails and outdoor recreation, this property combines affordability, freedom, and adventure. Finish the interior to reflect your style and create a personalized small-space retreat designed around how you want to live.

20. 2024-08-24
    historical
21. 2024-08-09
    price $39,500
22. 2024-07-27
    price $43,858
23. 2024-07-16
    price $44,500
24. 2024-06-27
    listed $48,900 Active
25. 2021-09-16
    soldstatus $12,000
26. 2019-05-23
    listed $17,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $170 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $446 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$276/yr (+$23/mo · 162.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,627
• − Property taxes: −$170
• − Insurance: −$234
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$746
• − Management: −$746
• − Depreciation: −$1,364
• Taxable income: $3,432
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$824
• After-tax cash flow: $3,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2617820
• Math proficiency: 17% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $30,377
• Composite: 18.07/100
• National rank: #8977
• State rank: #457 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hayes

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,939

Population outlook (Clare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,283 people
• By 2030: 28,199 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 25,722 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 23,372 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 18,569 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 14,320 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clare

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.5% · R 68.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.4pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.8 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+4.8 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.38%
• Current HPI: 234.9586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+165.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-16 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $47,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $39,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-27 Price Changed $43,858 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $44,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-27 Listed $48,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-23 Listed $17,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $170 · -78.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.