10204 Valley Forge Ln N · Maple Grove, MN 55369

$420,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,086 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1974 0.27 ac lot Est $434k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a spacious 5-bedroom home with a private Owner’s Suite? Your search ends here! The thoughtfully designed Owner’s Suite addition features beautiful wood floors, an abundance of windows that fill the space with natural light, dual closets, and a private ¾ bath with tile flooring. The light-filled kitchen offers ceramic tile floors, ample counter and cabinet space, floating shelves, and convenient direct access to the garage — making everyday living easy and efficient. The dining area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating the perfect setup for entertaining. The spacious living room showcases a stunning floor-to-ceiling window, providing abundant natur

Key facts

• Ceramic tile floors
• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE ADDITION
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORS
• FLOOR TO CEILING WINDOW
• CHICAGO BRICK FIREPLACE
• OVERSIZED CONCRETE PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage (approx. 21x25)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Three-level split; Main level entry; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Block construction; Block foundation; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less)
• Exterior features: Patio; Stone and vinyl exterior; Medium tree coverage on lot; City street frontage with paved streets and public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Primary suite with private 3/4 bath (upper level); Bedroom on lower level (Bedroom 5, 20x15); Upper-level bedrooms (three bedrooms, various sizes)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on upper level; Primary 3/4 bathroom (private)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with daylight/lookout windows; Family room with fireplace; Eat-in kitchen / informal dining area; Kitchen window; Patio access; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer and dryer included (hookup present)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $321k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Maple Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#54 in MN, #1,353 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D.
• Osseo Public School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #129 of 301 in MN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $420k implies a 1036% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $320,794 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.05%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $433,888
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10698 Boundary Creek Ter	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,803 (-14%)	16mo	$375,000	$208	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-83,295
• Equity at exit: $62,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-98,835
• Equity at exit: $36,314

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55369

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,295/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$674
• Net cashflow: $-201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,463

Max offer price $384,466

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $37	-5% $-82	+0% $-201	+5% $-320	+10% $-439
Rent	-10% $-455	-5% $-328	+0% $-201	+5% $-74	+10% $52
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-94	base $-201	+0.5pp $-310	+1.0pp $-421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10414 Valley Forge Ln N Maple Grove, MN	4.0	2.0	2487	$3,300	$1.33	20d	1	0.25mi
9713 95th Pl N Maple Grove, MN	3.0–5.0	2.5–3.5	2202	$3,655	$1.66	0d	9	1.09mi
9317 95th Pl N Maple Grove, MN	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,850	$1.68	44d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $420,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $420,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $420,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $420,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $420,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $420,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,295 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,499 · $375/mo
• Expected delta: +$205/yr (+$17/mo · 4.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$4,295
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,080
• − Management: −$3,080
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$9,803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,353
• After-tax cash flow: $-61/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osseo Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2725200
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $76,168
• Composite: 42.35/100
• National rank: #3250
• State rank: #129 of 301 in MN

Livability — Maple Grove

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #1353

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maple Grove, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 77,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 39,290
• Household income: $112,144
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -313.16%
• Current HPI: 233.7627
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1035.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $420,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1974-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,975 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,295 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.