10957 Vacation Dr · Kingston, OK 73439

$179,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,013 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $240k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

2019 Clayton home. 4 bedroom 2 bathroom sitting on 1/2 acre lot near Catfish Bay in Kingston, OK. This home has a new HVAC along with all new stainless steel appliances. This would make a great full time residence, lake home, or rental property. No HOA.

Key facts

• 1/2 acre lot
• New hvac
• Built 1980

Tags

• NEW HVAC
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• 1/2 ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.6% in Kingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#251 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Kingston (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #70 of 270 in OK (top 26%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kingston Es (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #210 of 845 statewide, top 25%, 620 students, 0% FRL); Kingston Ms (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #57 of 345 statewide, top 18%, 286 students, 0% FRL); Kingston Hs (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #150 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 362 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 76% district-wide (76 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 436 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.36%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,081
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5701 Lanty	0.54mi	2/1.0	912 (-10%)	0mo	$216,500	$237	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $123,509
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.85×
• Total profit: $343,380
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73439

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,113 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,183/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,597

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $509	-5% $458	+0% $408	+5% $357	+10% $306
Rent	-10% $241	-5% $324	+0% $408	+5% $491	+10% $575
Rate	-1.0pp $498	-0.5pp $453	base $408	+0.5pp $361	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $179,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $179,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $179,000 Active
19. 2021-12-21
    soldstatus $219,000
20. 2002-12-02
    soldstatus $76,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,183 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,183 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,183
• − Insurance: −$1,692
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,029
• − Management: −$2,029
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $2,192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$526
• After-tax cash flow: $4,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingston
• NCES district ID: 4016590
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,655
• Composite: 24.88/100
• National rank: #7585
• State rank: #70 of 270 in OK

Livability — Kingston

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #251
• US rank: #16664

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,011

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 18,038 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 19,513 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 21,283 · +22.3%
• By 2075: 27,884 · +60.2%
• By 2100: 35,435 · +103.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.4) · D 17.7% · R 81.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -63.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.4 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.96%
• Current HPI: 246.2253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+134.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $179,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $219,000 Public Records
• 2002-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,183 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.