1216 Merchant St · El Campo, TX 77437

$88,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1954 7,487 sqft lot $89/sqft · 23% below area Est $114k · 23% under ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property has great potential to become the perfect starter home. Conveniently located in the center of town and tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers both accessibility and privacy. The fenced backyard backs to an open field, creating a peaceful an secluded setting. Enjoy plenty of space for outdoor gatherings, cookouts, and making memories with friends and family in this spacious backyard.

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Open field
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN FIELD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.2% in El Campo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#204 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime D-.
• El Campo ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #387 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 191 units permitted in Wharton County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,360 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.55%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $114,141
• List price: $88,000
• Delta: -22.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1216 Merchant St	0.00mi	2/1.0	992 (0%)	1mo	$88,000	$89	99
605 Fahrenthold St	0.59mi	2/1.0	980 (-1%)	5mo	$120,000	$122	67
629 W Norris St	0.64mi	2/1.0	942 (-5%)	3mo	$112,000	$119	59
1302 Merchant St	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,096 (+10%)	19mo	$119,000	$109	56
611 Fahrenthold St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	951 (-4%)	11mo	$148,000	$156	53
501 Pierce St	0.68mi	2/1.0	960 (-3%)	21mo	$179,999	$187	45
507 Elm St	0.48mi	2/1.0	864 (-13%)	17mo	$85,000	$98	42
504 E West St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,105 (+11%)	2mo	$199,000	$180	38
806 College	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+11%)	23mo	$160,000	$145	24
502 E West St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (+14%)	24mo	$180,000	$158	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-2,998
• Equity at exit: $13,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $12,111
• Equity at exit: $7,609

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77437

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,542/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $899

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $200	+0% $176	+5% $151	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $87	-5% $131	+0% $176	+5% $220	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $220	-0.5pp $198	base $176	+0.5pp $153	+1.0pp $130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2001 Avenue F Unit F El Campo, TX	2.0	1.0	1125	$1,121	$1.00	44d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   This property has great potential to become the perfect starter home. Conveniently located in the center of town and tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers both accessibility and privacy. The fenced backyard backs to an open field, creating a peaceful an secluded setting. Enjoy plenty of space for outdoor gatherings, cookouts, and making memories with friends and family in this spacious backyard.

2. 2026-04-22
   price $88,000 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   This property has great potential to become the perfect starter home. Conveniently located in the center of town and tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers both accessibility and privacy. The fenced backyard backs to an open field, creating a peaceful an secluded setting. Enjoy plenty of space for outdoor gatherings, cookouts, and making memories with friends and family in this spacious backyard.

3. 2026-03-27
   status Active 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   This property has great potential to become the perfect starter home. Conveniently located in the center of town and tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers both accessibility and privacy. The fenced backyard backs to an open field, creating a peaceful an secluded setting. Enjoy plenty of space for outdoor gatherings, cookouts, and making memories with friends and family in this spacious backyard.

4. 2026-03-15
   status Pending 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   This property has great potential to become the perfect starter home. Conveniently located in the center of town and tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers both accessibility and privacy. The fenced backyard backs to an open field, creating a peaceful an secluded setting. Enjoy plenty of space for outdoor gatherings, cookouts, and making memories with friends and family in this spacious backyard.

5. 2026-03-10
   listed $95,000 Active 416-char remark

   Show marketing remark (416 chars)

   This property has great potential to become the perfect starter home. Conveniently located in the center of town and tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers both accessibility and privacy. The fenced backyard backs to an open field, creating a peaceful an secluded setting. Enjoy plenty of space for outdoor gatherings, cookouts, and making memories with friends and family in this spacious backyard.

6. 2024-12-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,542 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,542 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$2,542
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable income: $828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$199
• After-tax cash flow: $1,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Campo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818280
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,351
• Composite: 34.82/100
• National rank: #5102
• State rank: #387 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Campo

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #204
• US rank: #5196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Campo, TX
• City population: 18,886
• Population (ZIP): 18,886

Population outlook (Wharton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,448 people
• By 2030: 42,726 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 43,042 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 43,368 · +2.2%
• By 2075: 44,962 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 44,510 · +4.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 44% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Wharton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.8% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.7pp toward R · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+39.1 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.78%
• Current HPI: 181.5905
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $88,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,542 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.