1212 Addison Ln · Brandon, MS 39042

$272,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2021 Est $324k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction! Beautiful finishes through out this unique floor plan of 3 bedroom 2 bath brick home featuring large open kitchen, great laundry room, and beautiful color scheme. Come see this home before you choose to buy! Greenfield has many great amenities to offer including clubhouse and pool not to mention this property qualifies for USDA 100% Financing with lender approval.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Trim work
• Granite kitchen

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• TRIM WORK
• UPDATED INTERIOR LIGHTING
• UPDATED EXTERIOR LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $272k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,503 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.64%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
606 Conti Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (0%)	3mo	$312,900	$174	81
612 Conti Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,745 (-3%)	4mo	$299,900	$172	74
921 Filmore Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,587 (-12%)	5mo	$284,900	$180	71
672 Conti Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,765 (-2%)	5mo	$322,000	$182	69
225 Greenfield Xing	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,756 (-2%)	3mo	$300,000	$171	68
736 Sawgrass Lakes Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-13%)	0mo	$296,500	$189	67
510 Carrington Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,892 (+5%)	2mo	$320,000	$169	66
518 Carrington Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-12%)	1mo	$299,900	$190	64
676 Conti Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,657 (-8%)	2mo	$310,000	$187	63
704 Parkdale Pl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,585 (-12%)	6mo	$285,000	$180	56
709 Parkdale Pl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,585 (-12%)	6mo	$290,000	$183	54
668 Conti Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,565 (-13%)	1mo	$279,000	$178	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-46,639
• Equity at exit: $40,556

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-18,111
• Equity at exit: $23,518

Cash invested: $76,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,426
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,497/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,107

Max offer price $242,429

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,000
• Closing costs: $8,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Red Oak Cv Pearl, MS	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,031	$1.44	13d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $272,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $272,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $272,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $272,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $272,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $272,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $272,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $272,000 683-char remark
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $270,000 Active 683-char remark
18. 2021-05-03
    soldstatus 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    New Construction! Beautiful finishes through out this unique floor plan of 3 bedroom 2 bath brick home featuring large open kitchen, great laundry room, and beautiful color scheme. Come see this home before you choose to buy! Greenfield has many great amenities to offer including clubhouse and pool not to mention this property qualifies for USDA 100% Financing with lender approval.

19. 2021-03-08
    listed $215,999 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    New Construction! Beautiful finishes through out this unique floor plan of 3 bedroom 2 bath brick home featuring large open kitchen, great laundry room, and beautiful color scheme. Come see this home before you choose to buy! Greenfield has many great amenities to offer including clubhouse and pool not to mention this property qualifies for USDA 100% Financing with lender approval.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,497 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,149 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$652/yr (+$54/mo · 43.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,236
• − Property taxes: −$1,497
• − Insurance: −$1,360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$7,913
• Taxable loss: −$6,904
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,657
• After-tax cash flow: $-352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+25.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $272,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $270,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-05-03 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-03-08 Listed $215,999 MLSU

Property tax history

+34.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,497 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.