3632 N 9th · Ceres, CA 95307

$26,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · Land public records · 346 Days on market

Built 1964 Fair condition 850 sqft lot $14/sqft · 81% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Space #17 in Little Orchard Mobile Home Park, located in the heart of Ceres, CA. This charming 1967 single-wide mobile home offers 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, and approximately 850 sq. ft. of comfortable living space perfect for those looking to customize, downsize, or invest. Inside, you'll find an updated kitchen and a bright, open layout filled with natural light. Enjoy relaxing on the covered front porch with planter space, along with the convenience of private driveway parking, an attached awning, and extra storage with a small yard area. The park is an all-ages community in central Ceres, with an application and approval required for purchase.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Small yard area
• Community amenities

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• DRIVEWAY PARKING
• ATTACHED AWNING
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• SMALL YARD AREA
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $26k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $26k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 92.2% vs local median 3.6% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucas Elementary (653 students, 76% FRL); Cesar Chavez Junior High (662 students, 83% FRL); Ceres High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,777 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $180 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $780 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 346 days — a 12% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 346 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 92.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 306.75%
• DSCR: 14.65
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,954
• List price: $26,000
• Delta: -58.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1440 Don Pedro Rd	1.27mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+2%)	1mo	$500,000	$270	62
3816 Blaker Rd	1.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (+2%)	1mo	$482,000	$260	56
2921 5th St	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,568 (-14%)	2mo	$487,000	$311	50
3212 Barry Ct	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,156 (+18%)	2mo	$620,000	$288	45
2000 Don Pedro Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,435 (-21%)	2mo	$382,500	$267	39
3005 Willetts Way	1.06mi	4/2.5	2,240 (+23%)	2mo	$485,000	$217	37
1717 Don Pedro Rd	0.95mi	4/3.0	2,211 (+21%)	2mo	$530,000	$240	35
3709 Bing Ln	0.97mi	4/3.0	2,216 (+22%)	2mo	$520,000	$235	35
3719 Blaker Rd	1.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-23%)	1mo	$530,000	$376	34
1744 Darwin Ct	1.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,423 (-22%)	1mo	$490,000	$344	34
2841 Fowler Rd #111	1.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (-16%)	2mo	$185,000	$121	34
2216 Venus Dr	1.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,387 (-24%)	2mo	$465,000	$335	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.71×
• Total profit: $114,352
• Equity at exit: $3,877

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 35.66×
• Total profit: $252,355
• Equity at exit: $2,248

Cash invested: $7,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,583 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$136
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$32 /mo · $390/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $1,861

Break-even live

Break-even rent $227

Max offer price $26,000

Occupancy floor 23%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,879	-5% $1,870	+0% $1,861	+5% $1,852	+10% $1,843
Rent	-10% $1,657	-5% $1,759	+0% $1,861	+5% $1,963	+10% $2,065
Rate	-1.0pp $1,874	-0.5pp $1,868	base $1,861	+0.5pp $1,854	+1.0pp $1,847

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,500
• Closing costs: $780
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2029 Venus Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,500	$1.87	72d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-30
   days on market $26,000 Active 346 DOM
2. 2026-06-29
   days on market $26,000 Active 345 DOM
3. 2026-06-28
   days on market $26,000 Active 344 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $26,000 Active 343 DOM
5. 2026-06-27
   days on market $26,000 Active 342 DOM
6. 2026-06-25
   days on market $26,000 Active 340 DOM
7. 2026-06-23
   days on market $26,000 Active 338 DOM
8. 2026-06-21
   days on market $26,000 Active 337 DOM
9. 2026-06-18
   days on market $26,000 Active 334 DOM
10. 2026-06-17
    days on market $26,000 Active 333 DOM
11. 2026-06-16
    days on market $26,000 Active 332 DOM
12. 2026-06-15
    days on market $26,000 Active 331 DOM
13. 2026-06-14
    days on market $26,000 Active 329 DOM
14. 2026-06-13
    days on market $26,000 Active 328 DOM
15. 2026-06-10
    days on market $26,000 Active 326 DOM
16. 2026-06-09
    days on market $26,000 Active 325 DOM
17. 2026-06-08
    days on market $26,000 Active 324 DOM
18. 2026-06-07
    days on market $26,000 Active 323 DOM
19. 2026-06-05
    days on market $26,000 Active 320 DOM
20. 2026-06-03
    days on market $26,000 Active 319 DOM
21. 2026-06-02
    days on market $26,000 Active 318 DOM
22. 2026-06-01
    days on market $26,000 Active 317 DOM
23. 2026-05-31
    days on market $26,000 Active 316 DOM
24. 2026-05-30
    days on market $26,000 Active 315 DOM
25. 1990-02-01
    soldstatus $550,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,456
• − Property taxes: −$390
• − Insurance: −$130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
• − Management: −$2,480
• − Depreciation: −$756
• Taxable income: $23,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,593
• After-tax cash flow: $16,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $45,550–$81,990 screening

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, particularly to the exterior siding and kitchen cabinets, to improve its condition and value.

Components & finishes AI

Flooring laminate Counters granite

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and discolored siding needs repainting or replacement.
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Dated cabinets could be updated with new ones.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Updating kitchen cabinets — New cabinets can enhance the kitchen's functionality and aesthetics, benefiting both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Walter White Elementary Middle Cesar Chavez Junior High High Central Valley High F CA #604/1,170 Nat'l #9,405/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 579,493 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 1990-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,488 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.