George Plan · New Caney, TX 77357

$215,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Explore affordable new construction homes in New Caney, TX at The Landing. Benefit from a low tax rate and a cozy small-town ambiance. Perfect for growing families, a variety of floorplans offer up to 4 beds and 3 baths. Immerse yourself in the peaceful rural backdrop located just west of I-69 with everyday essentials close to home. The Landing offers new-construction homes designed to meet your family's needs with modern amenities and a low tax rate. Nestled in a serene setting, these homes provide a laid-back lifestyle without compromising on convenience or quality. Tour The Landing today! Offered By: K. Hovnanian of Houston II, L. L. C. The George offers: Spacious kitchen with island overlooking great room. Inviting great room with wall of windows, perfect for entertaining. Relaxing owner's suite with owner's luxury bath featuring walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms with spacious closets. Convenient laundry room located off the foyer. Attached two-car garage.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Modern amenities
• Low tax rate

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOMES
• ACCESS TO NEW CANEY ISD
• LOW TAX RATE
• MODERN AMENITIES
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $215,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $261,319.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,582 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.18%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,319
• List price: $215,990
• Delta: -17.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18669 Shauna Danielle Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-0%)	1mo	$249,990	$177	87
22647 Ellis Way Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,426 (+1%)	0mo	$246,940	$173	81
22639 Ellis Way Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-1%)	1mo	$261,540	$186	81
22619 Ellis Way Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-1%)	2mo	$251,540	$179	80
22627 Ellis Way Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	2mo	$232,940	$162	78
18917 Lucas Michael Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,499 (+6%)	1mo	$261,290	$174	74
22819 Skip St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,499 (+6%)	1mo	$259,790	$173	74
18688 Shauna Danielle Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,499 (+6%)	1mo	$265,790	$177	74
18624 Presswood Way Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+10%)	1mo	$264,390	$170	67
18701 Presswood Way Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+10%)	2mo	$262,040	$168	63
22742 Kaelynn St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,610 (+14%)	0mo	$269,818	$168	58
18535 Karlynn St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,610 (+14%)	3mo	$273,494	$170	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-67,601
• Equity at exit: $38,964

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-104,662
• Equity at exit: $22,594

Cash invested: $73,169 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.4 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $254,743 ($171/sqft)
• Median days on market: 77 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +8.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,370
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,920/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,286

Max offer price $215,576

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-226	+0% $-316	+5% $-406	+10% $-497
Rent	-10% $-465	-5% $-391	+0% $-316	+5% $-242	+10% $-167
Rate	-1.0pp $-185	-0.5pp $-250	base $-316	+0.5pp $-384	+1.0pp $-453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,330
• Closing costs: $7,840
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21504 Mexican John Rd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,500	$1.23	93d	1	0.63mi
21950 Caney Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,850	$1.57	34d	1	0.96mi
22048 Newton Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,650	$1.79	73d	1	1.27mi
18036 Trepito Ave New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,950	$1.11	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $215,990 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $215,990 Active 441 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $215,990 Active 440 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $215,990 Active 439 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $215,990 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $215,990 Active 435 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $215,990 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $215,990 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $215,990 Active 430 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $215,990 Active 428 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $215,990 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $215,990 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $215,990 Active 425 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $215,990 Active 424 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $215,990 Active 422 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $215,990 Active 421 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $215,990 Active 420 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $215,990 Active 419 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $215,990 Active 418 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $215,990 Active 417 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $215,990 Active 416 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $215,990 Active 415 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $240,990 Active 414 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $240,990 Active 413 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $215,990 Active 411 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $215,990 Active 410 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $215,990 Active 409 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $215,990 Active 408 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $215,990 Active 407 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $215,990 Active 406 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $235,990 Active 405 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $235,990 Active 404 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $235,990 Active 403 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $235,990 Active 402 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $235,990 Active 401 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $235,990 Active 400 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $235,990 Active 398 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $235,990 Active 396 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $235,990 Active 395 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $235,990 Active 392 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $235,990 Active 391 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $235,990 Active 390 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $235,990 Active 389 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $235,990 Active 387 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $234,990 Active 383 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $234,990 Active 382 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $234,990 Active 381 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $234,990 Active 378 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,990 Active 377 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,990 Active 376 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,638
• − Property taxes: −$3,920
• − Insurance: −$1,307
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$7,602
• Taxable loss: −$8,457
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,030
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,065–$21,195 screening

This single-family home in Woodbranch, TX is in good condition with a good exterior and roof. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value increase through cosmetic updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms — Modern bathrooms can make the home more appealing to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $234,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $247,490 Zillow
• 2025-05-23 Listed $239,990 Zillow