5750 Aldrich Ln · Laurel, NY 11952

$949,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 1999 0.91 ac lot Est $900k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious Mattituck Colonial In the Heart of the North Fork, Featuring 4 Bedrooms and 2.5 Bathrooms, built in 1999, Full basement-725 sq. ft. with separate entrance, large property, shy 1 acre lot(. 91). , room for pool and tennis/recreation area. Close to local beaches, schools, local farm produce/products, transportation bus & LIRR.

Key facts

• 0.91 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $949k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($94k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $949k).
• Recommended offer: $892k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#965 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $266k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($892k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $892,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.34%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $899,800
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5750 Aldrich Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,200 (0%)	0mo	$900,000	$409	100
5660 Sound Ave	0.65mi	4/1.5	2,200 (0%)	1mo	$740,000	$336	65
1895 Aldrich Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,400 (+9%)	14mo	$1,470,000	$613	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $344,606
• Equity at exit: $141,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $941,863
• Equity at exit: $82,052

Cash invested: $265,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11952

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $17,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,977
• Tax from tax record: −$774 /mo · $9,282/yr
• Insurance: −$395
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,714
• Net cashflow: $7,825

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,779

Max offer price $949,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,250
• Closing costs: $28,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Bay Run Riverhead, NY	4.0	3.5	1901	$25,000	$13.15	18d	1	1.00mi
2415 Cox Neck Rd Mattituck, NY	5.0	3.5	2500	$15,000	$6.00	43d	1	1.14mi
7 Eileen Cir Jamesport, NY	3.0	2.0	1572	$10,000	$6.36	19d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-18
   listed $949,000 Active
3. 2026-01-16
   historical $949,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,282 · $774/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,660 · $1,055/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,378/yr (+$281/mo · 36.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $212,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,159
• − Property taxes: −$9,282
• − Insurance: −$4,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$16,977
• − Management: −$16,977
• − Depreciation: −$27,607
• Taxable income: $83,463
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20,031
• After-tax cash flow: $73,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Laurel

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #965
• US rank: #18894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laurel, NY
• City population: 775
• Population (ZIP): 4,749

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.04%
• Current HPI: 453.8895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-18 Listed $949,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Coming Soon $949,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,282 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.