15995 Palo Alto Dr · Guerneville, CA 95446

$249,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1911 5,502 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

CA classic 1911 Vernacular Craftsman Cottage nestled in the redwoods. This authentic California Bungalow retains its original rustic charm, featuring a hipped roofline and traditional wood-frame construction characteristic of the early Russian River resort era. Contractor special 4 units.

Key facts

• California bungalow
• 5,502 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots

Tags

• VERNACULAR CRAFTSMAN COTTAGE
• CALIFORNIA BUNGALOW
• WOOD-FRAME CONSTRUCTION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Four parking spaces; Other parking features (unspecified)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential income property — quadruplex; Two-story building
• Exterior features: Lot features: other (unspecified)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four 1-bedroom units (three units of the same 1-bedroom type and one studio)
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms (one in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Heating: other (unspecified); Cooling: other (unspecified)
• Interior features: Storage area basement (unfinished); Two levels; Fixer condition
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: other (unspecified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $249k).
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.1% in Guerneville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#666 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Guerneville Elementary (town): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #591 of 1,400 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,518/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 242% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price; built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $249,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.87%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $37,338
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $133,822
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95446

• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$947 /mo · $11,366/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$949
• Net cashflow: $1,213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,983

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 68%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,518
Total (2 units)			$4,518

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16799 Center Way Guerneville, CA	5.0	2.0	2040	$6,900	$3.38	13d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 289-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $249,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,366 · $947/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,366 · $947/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥87°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$11,366
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,337
• − Management: −$4,337
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $11,739
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,817
• After-tax cash flow: $11,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guerneville Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0616320
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,051
• Composite: 40.37/100
• National rank: #7749
• State rank: #591 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Guerneville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #666
• US rank: #20615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment B Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guerneville, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 4,607
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 4,607
• Household income: $85,833
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 242.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -578.26%
• Current HPI: 267.138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+60.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $249,000 BAREIS
• 2005-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $440,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,366 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.