35179 Quail Creek Dr · Watson, LA 70706

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2015 10,018 sqft lot Est $212k · 6% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 35179 Quail Creek Drive, a 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in Denham Springs' Quail Creek subdivision -- 1,450 square feet of easy single-story living in an established Livingston Parish neighborhood. Curb Appeal: Built in 2015 by D.R. Horton, this home pairs low-maintenance vinyl siding with an architectural shingle roof and a welcoming covered front porch. The driveway leads to a two-car carport with extra parking. Open Living: The living room opens directly to the kitchen and dining area in one bright, connected layout, finished with wood-look laminate flooring, a ceiling fan, and arched entryways. Kitchen: Rich espresso cabinetry, tile countertops, a tile backsplash, and a center island with seating make the kitchen as functional as it is inviting. Black appliances and a pantry complete the space. The primary bedroom features a ceiling fan, walk-in closet, and a private en suite bath with a tub/shower combo. Three more carpeted bedrooms with ceiling fans share a second full bath -- plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. The indoor laundry room adds everyday convenience, and the washer and dryer convey. Outdoor Living: Out back, a spacious covered patio strung with lights overlooks a fully fenced yard with a storage shed -- perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Situated in Flood Zone X and zoned for Livingston Parish's highly rated schools, with all appliances and four security cameras included. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Tile countertops
• Espresso cabinetry

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• TWO CAR CARPORT
• WOOD LOOK LAMINATE FLOORING
• ESPRESSO CABINETRY
• TILE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Quail Creek
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $200

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-space carport
• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Level topography/lot
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a single-story (detached)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Fenced yard (wood, full); Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Security system; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-536/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.8% in Watson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#50 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,700
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9317 Folsom	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,438 (-1%)	2mo	$210,000	$146	86
35063 Rayville Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,438 (-1%)	5mo	$205,000	$143	76
35080 Rayville Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,518 (+5%)	4mo	$220,000	$145	74
9038 Sarah St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (+2%)	4mo	$219,000	$149	73
35066 Madisonville Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,398 (-4%)	9mo	$205,000	$147	72
35034 Quail Creek Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	1mo	$210,000	$139	72
9103 Springfield Rd	0.07mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,607 (+11%)	10mo	$255,000	$159	61
34948 Quail Creek Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,512 (+4%)	6mo	$215,000	$142	60
34868 Gravesbriar Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,355 (-7%)	2mo	$199,900	$148	57
35646 Melrose Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-2%)	9mo	$218,000	$154	54
34836 Eagle Ridge Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (+13%)	12mo	$210,000	$128	45
35694 Melrose Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,585 (+9%)	8mo	$210,000	$132	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-35,275
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,466
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70706

• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,914/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,657

Max offer price $192,109

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $12	+0% $-45	+5% $-101	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-108	+0% $-45	+5% $19	+10% $82
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $6	base $-45	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10124 Nashville Ct Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,600	$1.37	44d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $200,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,914 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,914 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,914
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,011
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$963
• After-tax cash flow: $427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Watson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #7247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,621

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.82%
• Current HPI: 160.2185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+51.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $200,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $200,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $185,500 Public Records
• 2021-11-15 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2021-09-20 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2021-08-18 Listed $190,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-08-18 Listed $190,000 GBRMLS
• 2011-05-28 Listed $132,100 AcadianaMLS
• 2011-05-28 Listed $132,100 GBRMLS

Property tax history

+19.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,914 · +15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.