18306 Water Mill Dr · Houston, TX 77429

$266,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1997 7,448 sqft lot $131/sqft · 15% below area Est $313k · 15% under $64/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a quiet corner, 18306 Water Mill Dr features fresh interior paint and a fireplace. The kitchen includes an accent backsplash. The primary bedroom holds a walk in closet, while the primary bathroom contains double sinks plus a separate tub and shower. The exterior provides a patio and a fenced in backyard. This residence stands as a functional structure within the established neighborhood environment. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Walk in closet
• Patio

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• WALK IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE SINKS
• SEPARATE TUB AND SHOWER
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $266k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robison El (math 52% / reading 56%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 916 students, 41% FRL); Spillane Middle (math 74% / reading 71%, grade A, #49 of 1,662 statewide, top 3%, 1,546 students, 29% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 43% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 618 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,834 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,896
• List price: $266,000
• Delta: -14.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14519 Bladenboro Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,000 (-2%)	1mo	$279,000	$140	80
18323 Water Mill Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (-8%)	2mo	$270,000	$144	76
14710 Arbor Trace Ct	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,019 (-1%)	6mo	$320,000	$158	76
18422 Auburn Woods Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,099 (+3%)	6mo	$300,000	$143	73
14626 Hazy Ridge Ln	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,174 (+7%)	2mo	$310,000	$143	63
14307 Millstone Estates Ln	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,239 (+10%)	2mo	$405,000	$181	56
17910 Cypress Valley Ln	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,259 (+11%)	8mo	$328,000	$145	55
17806 Carriage Crossing Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,235 (+10%)	4mo	$338,000	$151	54
14110 Aster Estates Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,180 (+7%)	5mo	$350,000	$161	50
14610 Hazy Ridge Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (-15%)	0mo	$275,000	$159	44
17707 Thicket Hollow Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (-14%)	0mo	$281,000	$160	42
14602 Thornbluff Ct	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,755 (-14%)	6mo	$299,000	$170	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-65,065
• Equity at exit: $39,661

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-102,313
• Equity at exit: $22,999

Cash invested: $74,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77429

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 618
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,377 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,395
• Tax from tax record: −$547 /mo · $6,560/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,679

Max offer price $223,834

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-163	+0% $-239	+5% $-314	+10% $-389
Rent	-10% $-426	-5% $-333	+0% $-239	+5% $-145	+10% $-51
Rate	-1.0pp $-105	-0.5pp $-171	base $-239	+0.5pp $-308	+1.0pp $-378

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,500
• Closing costs: $7,980
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14738 Autumn Glen Ct Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	2179	$2,420	$1.11	1d	1	0.40mi
17910 Cypress Valley Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2259	$2,445	$1.08	45d	1	0.44mi
18534 Burgundy Sky Way Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	45d	1	0.86mi
13136 Fry Rd Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,100	$1.27	45d	1	1.02mi
13130 Fry Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1089	$2,189	$2.01	1d	25	1.04mi
15007 Appian Oak St Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2521	$2,626	$1.04	24d	1	1.17mi
17802 Mound Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$2,295	$2.04	1d	22	1.34mi
16510 Barker Ranch Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	2300	$2,210	$0.96	19d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   status $266,000 Pending 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $266,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $266,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $266,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $266,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $266,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $266,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $280,000 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    Situated on a quiet corner, 18306 Water Mill Dr features fresh interior paint and a fireplace. The kitchen includes an accent backsplash. The primary bedroom holds a walk in closet, while the primary bathroom contains double sinks plus a separate tub and shower. The exterior provides a patio and a fenced in backyard. This residence stands as a functional structure within the established neighborhood environment. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

17. 2026-04-03
    listed $285,000 Active 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    Situated on a quiet corner, 18306 Water Mill Dr features fresh interior paint and a fireplace. The kitchen includes an accent backsplash. The primary bedroom holds a walk in closet, while the primary bathroom contains double sinks plus a separate tub and shower. The exterior provides a patio and a fenced in backyard. This residence stands as a functional structure within the established neighborhood environment. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

18. 2026-03-20
    soldstatus
19. 2007-08-15
    soldstatus
20. 1998-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,560 · $547/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,560 · $547/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,900
• − Property taxes: −$6,560
• − Insurance: −$1,330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,282
• − Management: −$2,282
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$7,738
• Taxable loss: −$7,337
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,761
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 96,334
• Household income: $119,191
• Rent vs Own: 18.8% rent · 81.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1264.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 11% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.36%
• Current HPI: 232.7267
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.23%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,560 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.