821 Hillburn Dr · Dallas, TX 75217

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 948 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1948 5,750 sqft lot Est $160k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great little starter home. Already FHA appraised. Appliances included in home. Back yard with large tree. Carport and one car garage.

Key facts

• Prime location
• Heart of dallas
• 5,750 sq ft lot

Tags

• HEART OF DALLAS
• MINUTES FROM MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• PRIME LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is Active Under Contract; Photos available (9)
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Covered parking (1 space); Carport spaces: 1; Garage with 1 space (approx. 13' wide x 21' long)
• Security: No surveillance devices reported
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property type; One story; Preowned (built in 1948)
• Construction: Composition roof; Siding exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Year built 1948
• Exterior features: Lot smaller than 0.5 acre; Will subdivide; Subdivision: Pyron E O

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Kitchen on main level (15 x 9)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (14 x 13); Second bedroom on main level (13 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: One-level layout; 4 total rooms; 1 living area; Disposal; Other interior features; Carpet flooring
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leonides Gonzalez Cigarroa Md El (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 584 students, 98% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.79%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,212
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
821 Hillburn Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	948 (0%)	1mo	$115,000	$121	99
824 Carbona Dr	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+10%)	8mo	$179,000	$172	70
8209 Jacobie Blvd	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+3%)	9mo	$214,900	$219	53
1158 Carbona Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	999 (+5%)	13mo	$249,999	$250	50
7211 Elam Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,059 (+12%)	2mo	$114,900	$108	47
1135 Pleasant Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	876 (-8%)	4mo	$95,000	$108	47
8246 Marvel Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0	819 (-14%)	2mo	$175,000	$214	45
1339 Traymore Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,035 (+9%)	22mo	$175,000	$169	28
729 Manhattan Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,085 (+14%)	17mo	$170,000	$157	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,126
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-982
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75217

• Home prices YoY: -4.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,507 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,964/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,242

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8120 Rayville Dr Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	960	$1,495	$1.56	24d	1	0.48mi
1315 Whitley Dr Unit 2 Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	43d	1	0.66mi
1315 Whitley Dr Unit 1 Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	43d	1	0.66mi
7250 Elam Rd Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	724	$1,368	$1.89	3d	9	0.78mi
8438 Maddox St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	3d	1	0.95mi
7203 Great Trinity Forest Way Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,114	$1.31	43d	1	0.97mi
1355 N Jim Miller Rd Unit 23 Dallas, TX	2.0	1.5	953	$1,100	$1.15	3d	1	0.99mi
7516 Olusta Dr Unit 7514 Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	862	$1,395	$1.62	24d	1	1.04mi
7514 Olusta Dr Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	862	$1,395	$1.62	17d	1	1.04mi
8714 Quinn St Unit B Dallas, TX	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,495	$1.37	24d	1	1.16mi
8127 Stonehurst St #5 Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	43d	1	1.17mi
6811 Marla Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1070	$1,850	$1.73	2d	1	1.20mi
6415 Godfrey Ave Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	751	$1,435	$1.91	2d	1	1.21mi
1942 Prichard Ln Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	565	$950	$1.68	7d	1	1.38mi
1959 Hillburn Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$1,700	$1.86	6d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $115,000 Active
4. 2012-10-03
   soldstatus Closed 133-char remark

   Show marketing remark (133 chars)

   Great little starter home. Already FHA appraised. Appliances included in home. Back yard with large tree. Carport and one car garage.

5. 2012-09-21
   status Pending 133-char remark

   Show marketing remark (133 chars)

   Great little starter home. Already FHA appraised. Appliances included in home. Back yard with large tree. Carport and one car garage.

6. 2012-09-13
   listed $35,000 Active 133-char remark

   Show marketing remark (133 chars)

   Great little starter home. Already FHA appraised. Appliances included in home. Back yard with large tree. Carport and one car garage.

7. 1950-06-13
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,964 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,964 · $330/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$3,964
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$207
• After-tax cash flow: $2,302/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 85,028
• Household income: $55,723
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2649.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% Two or more races 34% Black 20% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 65% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.04%
• Current HPI: 382.5527
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+228.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2012-10-03 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2012-09-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2012-09-13 Listed $35,000 NTREIS
• 1950-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,964 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.