8635 Ribbon Falls Ln · Jacksonville, FL 32244

$215,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $295k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome perfectly situated with in Oakleaf Plantation area. Featuring an attached garage, this home offers both convenience and comfort. Inside, you'll find a spacious, open floor plan designed for modern living. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, creating a perfect space for entertaining or relaxing. Step out to the screened-in patio and enjoy peaceful views in a setting that feels private and serene. Upstairs, the bedrooms are generously sized, including a comfortable primary suite with its own bathroom retreat. Just steps from your door, you'll have access to Oakleaf Plantation's resort-style amenities. Plus, with the Oakleaf Town Center and Epic Theater within walking distance, shopping, dining, and entertainment are always close at hand. This townhome combines a tranquil setting with unbeatable convenience—don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

Key facts

• Freshly painted
• Screen patio on back
• Built 2006

Tags

• EAT IN AREA IN KITCHEN
• SCREEN PATIO ON BACK
• FRESHLY PAINTED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2006; Single-family home
• Construction: 2006 construction
• Exterior features: Located in the Southwest subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $215k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,881 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.42%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,460
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8369 Watermill Blvd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+4%)	11mo	$315,000	$191	59
9237 Fallsmill Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-4%)	1mo	$293,000	$193	58
9652 Bridgeway Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+4%)	4mo	$355,900	$216	56
9221 Fallsmill Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,533 (-3%)	7mo	$287,000	$187	53
3416 Laurel Leaf Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-3%)	18mo	$319,000	$208	48
8453 Stelling Dr S	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-3%)	21mo	$280,000	$182	44
931 Thoroughbred Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,742 (+10%)	17mo	$312,500	$179	32
9423 Prosperity Lake Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,799 (+14%)	18mo	$307,000	$171	30
9470 Daniels Mill Dr W	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,678 (+6%)	23mo	$299,000	$178	29
8365 Swanton Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,799 (+14%)	19mo	$335,000	$186	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-25,428
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-14,171
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32244

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,959 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,908/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,742

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8618 Ribbon Falls Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,850	$1.18	2d	1	0.02mi
8692 Tower Falls Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1372	$1,795	$1.31	17d	1	0.07mi
8382 Stelling Dr S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,750	$1.37	4d	1	0.63mi
250 Cherry Ridge Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$1,753	$1.61	3d	14	0.65mi
8077 Welbeck Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,985	$1.36	10d	1	0.70mi
7840 Old Middleburg Rd S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,495	$1.31	21d	1	0.71mi
880 Thoroughbred Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,590	$1.16	3d	1	0.71mi
9849 Crosshill Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$2,125	$2.00	1d	22	0.75mi
8123 Barley Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1648	$2,100	$1.27	3d	1	0.79mi
8123 Barley Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1648	$2,100	$1.27	10d	1	0.79mi
8023 Tuxford Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,950	$1.27	23d	1	0.79mi
2995 Thorncrest Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1766	$2,320	$1.31	1d	1	0.91mi
4123 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$2,045	$1.53	1d	1	0.91mi
3631 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	4.5	2010	$1,600	$0.80	14d	1	0.93mi
516 Meldrum Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1971	$2,800	$1.42	23d	1	0.93mi
9202 Redtail Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1669	$2,060	$1.23	3d	1	0.96mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1965	$1,675	$0.85	14d	1	1.00mi
7901 Merchants Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1359	$1,800	$1.32	21d	1	1.03mi
3899 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,990	$1.32	3d	1	1.06mi
7960 Merchants Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,019	$2.05	3d	20	1.06mi
3886 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,850	$1.23	23d	1	1.07mi
7818 Merchants Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1594	$1,825	$1.14	23d	1	1.11mi
8088 Dancing Fox St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	2165	$2,300	$1.06	23d	1	1.11mi
7804 Merchants Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1368	$1,900	$1.39	23d	1	1.12mi
10044 Sitting Fox Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,900	$1.15	21d	1	1.15mi
9868 Fiddleback Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1627	$1,821	$1.12	17d	1	1.18mi
9868 Fiddleback Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1627	$1,821	$1.12	14d	1	1.18mi
3750 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1862	$1,850	$0.99	1d	2	1.19mi
7675 Merchants Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1627	$1,795	$1.10	23d	1	1.23mi
7662 Merchants Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1627	$2,000	$1.23	17d	1	1.24mi
8036 Cape Fox Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	2061	$1,850	$0.90	17d	1	1.25mi
1064 Moosehead Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1713	$2,099	$1.23	4d	1	1.25mi
8584 Bandera Cir W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,850	$1.27	23d	1	1.27mi
6477 Longleaf Branch Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1947	$2,215	$1.14	23d	1	1.28mi
4137 Arbor Mill Cir Orange Park, FL	4.0	3.0	2022	$2,250	$1.11	7d	1	1.29mi
7236 Jemmah Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,898	$1.23	7d	1	1.31mi
10104 Bedford Lakes Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	2064	$2,100	$1.02	14d	1	1.32mi
10252 Powell Creek Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,029	$1.31	13d	1	1.35mi
10129 Bedford Lakes Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,150	$1.39	17d	1	1.36mi
8518 Iron Mill Trl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	2147	$1,250	$0.58	12d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $215,000 Active
3. 2025-12-29
   historical 950-char remark

   Show marketing remark (950 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome perfectly situated with in Oakleaf Plantation area. Featuring an attached garage, this home offers both convenience and comfort. Inside, you'll find a spacious, open floor plan designed for modern living. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, creating a perfect space for entertaining or relaxing. Step out to the screened-in patio and enjoy peaceful views in a setting that feels private and serene. Upstairs, the bedrooms are generously sized, including a comfortable primary suite with its own bathroom retreat. Just steps from your door, you'll have access to Oakleaf Plantation's resort-style amenities. Plus, with the Oakleaf Town Center and Epic Theater within walking distance, shopping, dining, and entertainment are always close at hand. This townhome combines a tranquil setting with unbeatable convenience—don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

4. 2025-09-20
   listed $229,000 Active 950-char remark

   Show marketing remark (950 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome perfectly situated with in Oakleaf Plantation area. Featuring an attached garage, this home offers both convenience and comfort. Inside, you'll find a spacious, open floor plan designed for modern living. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, creating a perfect space for entertaining or relaxing. Step out to the screened-in patio and enjoy peaceful views in a setting that feels private and serene. Upstairs, the bedrooms are generously sized, including a comfortable primary suite with its own bathroom retreat. Just steps from your door, you'll have access to Oakleaf Plantation's resort-style amenities. Plus, with the Oakleaf Town Center and Epic Theater within walking distance, shopping, dining, and entertainment are always close at hand. This townhome combines a tranquil setting with unbeatable convenience—don't miss the opportunity to make it yours!

5. 2018-08-02
   soldstatus $137,500 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   Three bedroom, two and one half bath townhome with garage and screened-in patio. Oakleaf Plantation is steps away. Enjoy a private wooded lot with attached garage along with all the convenience of the Oakleaf Town Center within walking distance.

6. 2018-08-02
   listed $137,500 245-char remark

   Show marketing remark (245 chars)

   Three bedroom, two and one half bath townhome with garage and screened-in patio. Oakleaf Plantation is steps away. Enjoy a private wooded lot with attached garage along with all the convenience of the Oakleaf Town Center within walking distance.

7. 2013-09-05
   soldstatus $78,500
8. 2013-08-13
   soldstatus $78,500
9. 2013-03-07
   listed $95,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,908
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$369
• After-tax cash flow: $2,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 63,592
• Household income: $62,204
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2799.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.22%
• Current HPI: 296.5375
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+125.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $215,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-12-29 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-09-20 Listed $229,000 realMLS
• 2018-08-02 Listed $137,500 realMLS
• 2018-08-02 Sold (MLS) $137,500 realMLS
• 2013-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records
• 2013-08-13 Sold (MLS) $78,500 realMLS
• 2013-03-07 Listed $95,200 realMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,908 · +13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.