4413 Bridgewood Rd · Brandermill, VA 23112

$287,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1985 0.28 ac lot Est $323k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Super clean 3 BR and 2 BA rancher in convenient Midlothian neighborhood close to schools, restaurants, and shopping. Brand new laminate flooring has just been installed throughout. Everything has been freshly painted. The large eat-in kitchen will accommodate all your guests as will the spacious living room. The laundry room houses the new water heater and provides access to the rear deck. A covered front porch is ideal for rockers and relaxation. No HOA fee! It is definitely move-in ready. Check this one out quickly . .. it won't last long!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large eat-in kitchen
• Laundry room

Tags

• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• REAR DECK
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Brick, frame, and vinyl siding construction; Composition roof; Built (actual year not displayed)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Electric range / stove; Range hood; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first level; Bedroom with new laminate flooring (first level) — approx. 10.10 x 10.0; Bedroom with new laminate flooring (first level) — approx. 10.4 x 8.0; Bedroom (first level) with new laminate, ceiling fan, and two closets — approx. 12.6 x 12.6
• Flooring: New laminate flooring in multiple rooms; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Full bath with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Main-level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first level with door to deck

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-742/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Brandermill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#94 in VA, #3,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Thelma Crenshaw Elementary (math 40% / reading 57%, grade D, #785 of 1,108 statewide, top 71%, 651 students, 83% FRL); Bailey Bridge Middle (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C+, #218 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 1,459 students, 33% FRL); Manchester High (math 61% / reading 67%, grade B-, #220 of 319 statewide, top 70%, 2,188 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 26% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $288k implies a 472% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,421 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,784
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12104 Southernbelle Ct	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+1%)	3mo	$295,000	$279	90
4524 Twelveoaks Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+1%)	1mo	$289,500	$274	87
4518 Glen Tara Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+1%)	3mo	$305,000	$289	82
11548 New Forest Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,038 (-1%)	1mo	$330,000	$318	73
11531 Bailey Woods Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+4%)	3mo	$330,000	$303	70
11803 New Forest Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+4%)	3mo	$335,000	$308	70
12204 King Cotton Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+1%)	1mo	$328,000	$311	68
11619 New Forest Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+4%)	5mo	$320,000	$294	67
12206 Timber Trail Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	960 (-8%)	2mo	$299,000	$311	60
11503 Deep Hollow Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+7%)	2mo	$340,000	$304	53
4507 Parrish Branch Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+7%)	4mo	$350,000	$313	52
5107 Spring Bluff Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	2mo	$378,000	$315	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-52,170
• Equity at exit: $42,867

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-57,149
• Equity at exit: $24,858

Cash invested: $80,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23112

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,204 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,508
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,108/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,282

Max offer price $276,574

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $20	+0% $-62	+5% $-143	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-236	-5% $-149	+0% $-62	+5% $25	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $11	base $-62	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,875
• Closing costs: $8,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4613 Bridgewood Rd Midlothian, VA	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,995	$1.89	4d	1	0.16mi
3900 Maze Runner Dr Midlothian, VA	2.0	2.0	1229	$1,825	$1.48	12d	2	0.36mi
4100 Lonas Pkwy Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	969	$2,319	$2.39	4d	20	0.36mi
3900 Maze Runner Dr #201 Midlothian, VA	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,950	$1.69	4d	1	0.37mi
4000 Maze Runner Dr Midlothian, VA	2.0	2.0	1302	$2,200	$1.69	22d	1	0.39mi
5401 Commonwealth Centre Pkwy Midlothian, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,137	$2.12	3d	15	0.70mi
5200 Hunt Master Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,199	$2.51	5d	27	1.16mi
9906 Family Ln Chesterfield, VA	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,888	$1.48	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $287,500 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $287,500 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   remarks 547-char remark
4. 2026-06-13
   listed $287,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,108 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,358 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,451
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,104
• − Property taxes: −$2,108
• − Insurance: −$1,438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,116
• − Management: −$2,116
• − Depreciation: −$8,364
• Taxable loss: −$5,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,391
• After-tax cash flow: $649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brandermill

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #3055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 56,364
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 57,016
• Household income: $116,465
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.87%
• Current HPI: 277.4841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+721.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $287,500 CVRMLS
• 1988-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $50,300 Public Records
• 1985-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,108 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.