503 Madonna · Warm Mineral Springs, FL 34287

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1988 5,440 sqft lot $191/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ARE YOU READY TO RETIRE? IF SO, YOU WILL WANT TO SEE THIS HOME! This spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home offers you over 1,000 square feet of living space. Eat in kitchen with separate breakfast nook. A HUGE living room and a separate media room. Then there's the community of La Casa: 974 homes in a quiet guard gated community, surrounded by eight lakes, that offers you TWO heated swimming pools, hot tub, tennis courts, fitness center, and clubhouse. All of this, located minutes to shopping, golf courses, and Florida's beautiful Gulf beaches. This home will not last at this price, so schedule an appointment to see this home today, you'll be glad that you did!

Key facts

• 2024 water heater
• New ceiling fans
• 2023 roof

Tags

• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• NEW CEILING FANS
• 2024 WATER HEATER
• 2023 ROOF
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• UPDATED CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area reported as 1,088 (source: appraiser); Total building area reported as 1,460 (source: appraiser)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $191 (association approval required); Senior community; Cats allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces west; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.12-acre lot
• Exterior features: Storage; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (11.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#604 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Glenallen Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 716 students, 79% FRL); Heron Creek Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 902 students, 72% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 42% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 857 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $130k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,182 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.32%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-30,577
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-49,792
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34287

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 857
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,704 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $922/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$191
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,810

Max offer price $115,182

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10	-5% $-47	+0% $-83	+5% $-120	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-151	+0% $-83	+5% $-16	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-50	base $-83	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12395 Chancellor Blvd Port Charlotte, FL	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,600	$1.59	23d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $191 · $2,292/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $129,900 Active 2000-char remark
18. 2025-11-24
    soldstatus $52,500
19. 2025-11-21
    soldstatus $52,500 Closed 662-char remark

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    ARE YOU READY TO RETIRE? IF SO, YOU WILL WANT TO SEE THIS HOME! This spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home offers you over 1,000 square feet of living space. Eat in kitchen with separate breakfast nook. A HUGE living room and a separate media room. Then there's the community of La Casa: 974 homes in a quiet guard gated community, surrounded by eight lakes, that offers you TWO heated swimming pools, hot tub, tennis courts, fitness center, and clubhouse. All of this, located minutes to shopping, golf courses, and Florida's beautiful Gulf beaches. This home will not last at this price, so schedule an appointment to see this home today, you'll be glad that you did!

20. 2025-10-31
    status Pending 662-char remark

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    ARE YOU READY TO RETIRE? IF SO, YOU WILL WANT TO SEE THIS HOME! This spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home offers you over 1,000 square feet of living space. Eat in kitchen with separate breakfast nook. A HUGE living room and a separate media room. Then there's the community of La Casa: 974 homes in a quiet guard gated community, surrounded by eight lakes, that offers you TWO heated swimming pools, hot tub, tennis courts, fitness center, and clubhouse. All of this, located minutes to shopping, golf courses, and Florida's beautiful Gulf beaches. This home will not last at this price, so schedule an appointment to see this home today, you'll be glad that you did!

21. 2025-10-15
    price $79,900 662-char remark

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    ARE YOU READY TO RETIRE? IF SO, YOU WILL WANT TO SEE THIS HOME! This spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home offers you over 1,000 square feet of living space. Eat in kitchen with separate breakfast nook. A HUGE living room and a separate media room. Then there's the community of La Casa: 974 homes in a quiet guard gated community, surrounded by eight lakes, that offers you TWO heated swimming pools, hot tub, tennis courts, fitness center, and clubhouse. All of this, located minutes to shopping, golf courses, and Florida's beautiful Gulf beaches. This home will not last at this price, so schedule an appointment to see this home today, you'll be glad that you did!

22. 2025-08-26
    listed $89,900 Active 662-char remark

    Show marketing remark (662 chars)

    ARE YOU READY TO RETIRE? IF SO, YOU WILL WANT TO SEE THIS HOME! This spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath home offers you over 1,000 square feet of living space. Eat in kitchen with separate breakfast nook. A HUGE living room and a separate media room. Then there's the community of La Casa: 974 homes in a quiet guard gated community, surrounded by eight lakes, that offers you TWO heated swimming pools, hot tub, tennis courts, fitness center, and clubhouse. All of this, located minutes to shopping, golf courses, and Florida's beautiful Gulf beaches. This home will not last at this price, so schedule an appointment to see this home today, you'll be glad that you did!

23. 2013-11-01
    soldstatus $53,500
24. 2003-12-10
    soldstatus $32,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,078 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$156/yr (+$13/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$922
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,636
• − Management: −$1,636
• − HOA: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,858
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$686
• After-tax cash flow: $-314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warm Mineral Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #604
• US rank: #11606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warm Mineral Springs, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 75,324
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,929
• Household income: $63,464
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.89%
• Current HPI: 280.8484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+302.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 2025-11-21 Sold (MLS) $52,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-26 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records
• 2003-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $32,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $922 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.