2811 Vineyard Dr · Arnold, MO 63010

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Other public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1977 9,997 sqft lot $176/sqft · 26% below area Est $224k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stop! Don't pass this one by. Great Buy! Nice clean home with low maintenance vinyl siding with lifetime warranty vinyl soffits. All newer flooring, many updates, Trane HVAC. Large yard is level and fenced with a beautiful patio just waiting for a barbeque gathering with plenty of room to play. 2 car garage. All in a great area close to many ammenities. Home Protection Plan Offered.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Storage shed
• Patio covered porch

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• STORAGE SHED
• PATIO COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property described as a fixer; Living area reported as 936 (public records); Lot dimensions approximately 70 x 143 (about 0.2295 acre)
• Financial info: Owner listed as bank-owned; Seller may consider concessions
• HOA & community: Has HOA (City & Village) with annual fee covering common area maintenance; no association amenities listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with two spaces (approximately 494 sq ft)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bath; One half bath (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.1% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard Simpson Elem. (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 373 students, 24% FRL); Seckman Sr. High (math 22% / reading 64%, grade F, #211 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 1,793 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.88%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,961
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -26.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,971
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $23,664
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63010

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,702/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,362

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2901 Highland House Villas Ct Arnold, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	2d	1	0.18mi
3865 Crest Circle Dr Arnold, MO	2.0	1.5	830	$1,300	$1.57	2d	1	0.60mi
3409 5 Oaks Ct Arnold, MO	4.0	2.5	1080	$2,145	$1.99	20d	1	0.60mi
2714 Cherry Brook Dr Arnold, MO	3.0	3.0	1025	$2,000	$1.95	44d	1	0.73mi
1778 Richardson Rd Arnold, MO	2.0	2.0	996	$1,250	$1.26	2d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-29
   listed $165,000 Active 640-char remark
2. 2025-07-31
   status Pending
3. 2025-07-01
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2025-01-03
   status Pending
5. 2025-01-03
   listed $22,000 Active
6. 2025-01-03
   price $115,000
7. 2013-03-08
   soldstatus
8. 2013-03-07
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Stop! Don't pass this one by. Great Buy! Nice clean home with low maintenance vinyl siding with lifetime warranty vinyl soffits. All newer flooring, many updates, Trane HVAC. Large yard is level and fenced with a beautiful patio just waiting for a barbeque gathering with plenty of room to play. 2 car garage. All in a great area close to many ammenities. Home Protection Plan Offered.

9. 2012-06-18
   listed $115,000

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Stop! Don't pass this one by. Great Buy! Nice clean home with low maintenance vinyl siding with lifetime warranty vinyl soffits. All newer flooring, many updates, Trane HVAC. Large yard is level and fenced with a beautiful patio just waiting for a barbeque gathering with plenty of room to play. 2 car garage. All in a great area close to many ammenities. Home Protection Plan Offered.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,702
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$365
• After-tax cash flow: $3,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fox C-6
• NCES district ID: 2912300
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,849
• Composite: 37.54/100
• National rank: #4392
• State rank: #103 of 324 in MO

Livability — Arnold

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #17082

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 108,544 people
• City population: 34,478
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 34,478
• Household income: $79,784
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 422.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% American 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.53%
• Current HPI: 190.586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+43.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $165,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-03 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-03 Listed $22,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-03-07 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-18 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,702 · +49.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.