130 N Collier #4 · Marco Island, FL 34145

$269,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 508 sqft · Condo · 11 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Southwinds.....the name says a lot this time of year. Super location close to Residents Beach at completely affordable price! One bedroom one bath ground floor place. No fuss, no stairs - very mobility friendly. Storm code windows, walk in shower, marble/granite stone counter in kitchen, upgrade cabinet panels and pulls. Unit ready for easy TLC - paint, flooring. Southwinds offers a classic large sunny pool in a central court setting surrounded by green grass and well kept low rise buildings. Easy assigned parking near building. Largely a 2nd home winter residence community, at Southwinds you you'll meet wonderful residents and renters, people who will become your friends easily. This condo G4 is ready for your personal touch....fresh paint and colors, etc. Long term tenant in residence with lease ending July 31 2020.

Key facts

• Bbq area
• Community room
• Beach access

Tags

• TURNKEY FIRST-FLOOR CONDO
• HEATED POOL
• BBQ AREA
• COMMUNITY ROOM
• ASSIGNED PARKING
• BEACH ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Clubhouse; Barbecue area; Bike path

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space
• Home design: One level
• Exterior features: Mid-street location

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Tile; See remarks
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall heating unit; Wall cooling unit
• Interior features: Assigned storage space; Impact windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (5.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $269k).
• Recommended offer: $253k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#404 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tommie Barfield Elementary School (math 84% / reading 75%, grade A, #116 of 2,144 statewide, top 6%, 464 students, 30% FRL); Manatee Middle School (math 61% / reading 43%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 749 students, 64% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 16 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; list at $269k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,002 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-40,025
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,835
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34145

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,753 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,035/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,893

Max offer price $253,002

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $-18	+0% $-111	+5% $-204	+10% $-296
Rent	-10% $-328	-5% $-219	+0% $-111	+5% $-2	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-42	base $-111	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 N Collier Blvd Unit A6 Marco Island, FL	2.0	1.0	704	$1,900	$2.70	25d	1	0.01mi
167 N Collier Blvd Marco Island, FL	2.0	1.0	555	$1,850	$3.33	15d	2	0.09mi
190 N Collier Blvd Unit T2 Marco Island, FL	1.0	1.0	508	$1,800	$3.54	25d	1	0.11mi
140 Seaview Ct #1504 Marco Island, FL	1.0	1.5	610	$2,200	$3.61	25d	1	0.12mi
87 N Collier Blvd Marco Island, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	663	$1,800	$2.71	25d	3	0.13mi
180 Seaview Ct Marco Island, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	721	$3,450	$4.78	25d	2	0.18mi
235 Seaview Ct Unit G8 Marco Island, FL	—	1.0	406	$1,850	$4.56	25d	1	0.24mi
240 Seaview Ct #413 Marco Island, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$6,500	$8.67	25d	1	0.27mi
457 Tallwood St #106 Marco Island, FL	1.0	1.0	539	$1,600	$2.97	25d	1	0.93mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: poolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 608-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $269,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,035
• − Insurance: −$6,464
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,643
• − Management: −$2,643
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$5,640
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,354
• After-tax cash flow: $27/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marco Island

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #7149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marco Island, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 16,205
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,205
• Household income: $101,523
• Rent vs Own: 10.6% rent · 89.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.55%
• Current HPI: 284.7538
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+292.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $269,000 MIML
• 2020-10-12 Sold (MLS) $156,000 MIML
• 2020-02-10 Listed $155,900 MIML
• 2010-03-30 Listed $89,000 MIML
• 2008-08-18 Listed $179,000 MIML
• 2007-12-06 Listed $229,000 MIML
• 2007-10-05 Listed $193,500 MIML
• 2007-06-01 Listed $239,000 MIML
• 2006-10-23 Listed $259,000 MIML
• 2005-03-22 Listed $299,900 MIML
• 2003-05-01 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MIML
• 2003-02-28 Listed $130,000 MIML
• 2002-01-14 Listed $115,000 MIML
• 2001-12-28 Listed $119,900 MIML
• 2001-05-08 Listed $110,000 MIML
• 1999-01-27 Listed $69,500 MIML
• 1998-11-13 Listed $72,000 MIML
• 1997-12-03 Listed $68,500 MIML