3433 Mahaffey Dr · Pearl, MS 39208

$154,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1962 10,454 sqft lot Est $154k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fantastic and affordable 3 bedroom 1 bathroom home in Pearl public school district! Recently remodeled with a BRAND NEW ROOF, new water heater and heating units, appliances and a great sized back yard! Conveniently located in close proximity to work, travel, shopping and an award winning school district makes this house a great deal at $165,000! Call today to schedule a showing!

Key facts

• New water heater
• New roof
• Conveniently located

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER
• GREAT SIZED BACK YARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; 4 total parking spaces (includes 1 carport space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One story; Living area recorded by appraiser
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Conventional foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Fenced lot; Few trees; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Oven; Range hood; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Water heater
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in carport

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.5% in Pearl — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#19 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pearl Public School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #32 of 130 in MS (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pearl Lower Elementary School (782 students, 100% FRL); Pearl Junior High School (math 46% / reading 40%, grade D-, #47 of 179 statewide, top 26%, 1,001 students, 100% FRL); Pearl High School (math 46% / reading 49%, grade D, #28 of 197 statewide, top 14%, 1,262 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,380 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.29%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $153,900
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3433 Mahaffey Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	950 (0%)	1mo	$154,000	$162	99
3451 Mahaffey Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,024 (+8%)	11mo	$149,000	$146	70
3237 Eastland Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,022 (+8%)	11mo	$175,000	$171	61
3206 King Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,012 (+6%)	18mo	$159,900	$158	54
201 Ann Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,063 (+12%)	23mo	$161,000	$151	53
110 Harle Cir	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	889 (-6%)	14mo	$155,000	$174	50
143 Pemberton Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,075 (+13%)	1mo	$150,000	$140	44
118 Shadow Lodge Cir	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,085 (+14%)	14mo	$185,900	$171	43
116 Shadow Lodge Cir	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,086 (+14%)	16mo	$190,000	$175	41
3223 Brenda Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,075 (+13%)	19mo	$129,900	$121	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,299
• Equity at exit: $22,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $37,066
• Equity at exit: $13,315

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39208

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,278/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,238

Max offer price $154,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $313	-5% $270	+0% $226	+5% $182	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $106	-5% $166	+0% $226	+5% $286	+10% $346
Rate	-1.0pp $304	-0.5pp $265	base $226	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3569 Old Brandon Rd Pearl, MS	2.0	1.0	800	$1,135	$1.42	44d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $154,000
3. 2026-04-11
   price $159,000
4. 2026-03-25
   listed $165,000 Active
5. 2026-03-10
   soldstatus
6. 2026-01-30
   soldstatus
7. 2026-01-30
   soldstatus
8. 2004-07-16
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,278 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,278 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$1,278
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,463
• − Management: −$1,463
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable income: $211
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$51
• After-tax cash flow: $2,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pearl Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2803520
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,525
• Composite: 36.29/100
• National rank: #4699
• State rank: #32 of 130 in MS

Livability — Pearl

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #5662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearl, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 34,442
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 34,442
• Household income: $65,480
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1235.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.11%
• Current HPI: 193.0609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $154,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $159,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-25 Listed $165,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,278 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.