15199 S Moon Valley Rd · Arizona City, AZ 85123

$745,000

None bd · None ba · 5,328 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2005

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Golf Course Lot Overlooking The 13th Fairway on the 14th Hole. *** To Be Built*** All 3 Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Single Car Garages, Tile Roof. 2 Story 1300 Sq Ft Each Unit W/Balconys. Prices are Subject to change. Builder may make Changes to the Plans during Building Phase.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Garage
• Built 2005

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Golf community; No pool

Exterior

• Parking: 8 total parking spaces; 4 covered parking spaces; 4 open parking spaces; More than one space per unit
• Utilities: APS electric; Public sewer; Private water
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Single building on property
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Stucco exterior; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Irrigated or irregular lot dimensions

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Free-standing range; Disposal; Dishwasher; Washer/dryer hookup; Ceiling fans; Laminate flooring; Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/2.5-bath units multifamily listed at $745k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $132/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $644k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $644k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.2% in Arizona City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#246 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arizona City Elementary School (math 6% / reading 15%, grade F, #993 of 1,109 statewide, top 91%, 744 students, 87% FRL); Casa Grande Union High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #217 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,132 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,436/mo this rent would consume 112% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($723k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $444k; list at $745k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $643,600 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-87,375
• Equity at exit: $111,082

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-33,884
• Equity at exit: $64,414

Cash invested: $208,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85123

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 38.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,436 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,907
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,073/yr
• Insurance: −$310
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,352
• Net cashflow: $528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,768

Max offer price $745,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $950	-5% $739	+0% $528	+5% $317	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $274	+0% $528	+5% $782	+10% $1,036
Rate	-1.0pp $903	-0.5pp $717	base $528	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $138

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	2.5	$6,436
Total (4 units)			$6,436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $186,250
• Closing costs: $22,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15147 S Yava Rd Unit A Arizona City, AZ	3.0	3.5	5689	$1,450	$0.25	12d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $745,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $745,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $745,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $745,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $745,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $745,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $745,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $745,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $745,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $745,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $745,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $745,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $745,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $745,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $745,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $745,000 Active
17. 2005-09-10
    soldstatus $444,400 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Golf Course Lot Overlooking The 13th Fairway on the 14th Hole. *** To Be Built*** All 3 Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Single Car Garages, Tile Roof. 2 Story 1300 Sq Ft Each Unit W/Balconys. Prices are Subject to change. Builder may make Changes to the Plans during Building Phase.

18. 2005-03-18
    historical 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Golf Course Lot Overlooking The 13th Fairway on the 14th Hole. *** To Be Built*** All 3 Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Single Car Garages, Tile Roof. 2 Story 1300 Sq Ft Each Unit W/Balconys. Prices are Subject to change. Builder may make Changes to the Plans during Building Phase.

19. 2004-08-09
    soldstatus $32,000
20. 2004-06-30
    listed $444,400 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Golf Course Lot Overlooking The 13th Fairway on the 14th Hole. *** To Be Built*** All 3 Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Single Car Garages, Tile Roof. 2 Story 1300 Sq Ft Each Unit W/Balconys. Prices are Subject to change. Builder may make Changes to the Plans during Building Phase.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,073 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,917 · $410/mo
• Expected delta: +$844/yr (+$70/mo · 20.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $77,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,732
• − Property taxes: −$4,073
• − Insurance: −$3,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,179
• − Management: −$6,179
• − Depreciation: −$21,673
• Taxable loss: −$6,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,519
• After-tax cash flow: $7,852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Arizona City

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #22768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arizona City, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 10,003
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,003
• Household income: $69,137
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.30%
• Current HPI: 283.5405
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+67.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $745,000 ARMLS
• 2005-09-10 Sold (MLS) $444,400 ARMLS
• 2005-03-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-30 Listed $444,400 ARMLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,073 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.