13420 Trumpet Creeper Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$281,999

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,149 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,090 sqft lot $131/sqft · 7% above area Est $262k · 7% over $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Lucia - This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE LOFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-278 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,417 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.23%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,494
• List price: $281,999
• Delta: 7.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23405 Firelight Dr	0.13mi	4/3.5	2,149 (0%)	2mo	$293,990	$137	92
13408 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,288 (+6%)	1mo	$310,990	$136	85
13328 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,288 (+6%)	2mo	$292,990	$128	83
13401 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,954 (-9%)	2mo	$257,990	$132	77
13317 Winton Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	1,913 (-11%)	0mo	$286,999	$150	74
23825 Glowing Embers Dr	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,162 (+1%)	2mo	$258,990	$120	74
23409 Firelight Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,954 (-9%)	2mo	$261,990	$134	73
13413 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-13%)	1mo	$266,999	$143	70
13320 Winton Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-11%)	1mo	$268,000	$141	66
13313 Winton Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-11%)	1mo	$290,000	$152	64
13301 Winton Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-11%)	2mo	$277,000	$145	62
23813 Glowing Embers Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,891 (-12%)	1mo	$258,999	$137	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $136,188
• Equity at exit: $254,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $415,663
• Equity at exit: $547,862

Cash invested: $78,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,184 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,230/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,536

Max offer price $241,724

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,500
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	20d	1	0.17mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	21d	1	0.28mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	17d	1	0.28mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	43d	1	0.39mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.68mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	43d	1	0.70mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	16d	1	0.79mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	23d	1	0.79mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	23d	1	0.83mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	1d	1	0.83mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	43d	1	0.86mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	23d	1	0.94mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	0.95mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	17d	1	1.01mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	23d	1	1.06mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	1.06mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	19d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   The Lucia - This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

2. 2026-05-05
   price $281,999 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   The Lucia - This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

3. 2026-05-01
   price $291,990 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   The Lucia - This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

4. 2026-04-21
   price $296,990 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   The Lucia - This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

5. 2026-04-20
   price $295,990 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   The Lucia - This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

6. 2026-04-14
   listed $296,990 Active 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   The Lucia - This new two-story home offers plenty of space to live and grow. An open-concept floorplan on the first level combines the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for outdoor fun and leisure. The luxurious owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. A versatile loft shares the second floor with three additional bedrooms. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$4,230
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,097
• − Management: −$2,097
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$8,204
• Taxable loss: −$8,283
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,988
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious open-concept floorplan and luxurious features, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernized bathrooms can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernized bathrooms can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $281,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $291,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $296,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $295,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $296,990 Unlock MLS