579 Leonard Ln · Big Bear City, CA 92386

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1960 7,125 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,125 sq ft lot
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.3% in Big Bear City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#988 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,214/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 151% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $189k implies a 372% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.30%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
682 Leonard Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+0%)	5mo	$370,000	$284	85
479 Holmes	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+8%)	6mo	$266,000	$189	71
365 Santa Barbara Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+2%)	3mo	$549,000	$416	68
713 Los Angeles Ave	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,264 (-3%)	5mo	$430,000	$340	68
533 Sunset Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,424 (+10%)	4mo	$478,000	$336	67
510 Sunset Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-14%)	2mo	$320,000	$286	60
589 Pine Ln	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,417 (+9%)	6mo	$189,000	$133	58
374 Los Angeles Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,131 (-13%)	0mo	$392,700	$347	57
476 Los Angeles Ave	0.27mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,464 (+13%)	6mo	$310,200	$212	50
244 Moreno Ln	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,132 (-13%)	0mo	$349,000	$308	49
755 Holmes Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,485 (+14%)	8mo	$306,000	$206	49
114 Cedar Ln	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,112 (-14%)	2mo	$335,000	$301	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,122
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $41,855
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92386

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,164/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,583

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44634 Barton Ln Sugarloaf, CA	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,150	$1.99	43d	1	0.09mi
790 Highland Ln Sugarloaf, CA	2.0	2.0	976	$2,300	$2.36	43d	1	0.29mi
323 Moreno Ln Sugarloaf, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,200	$1.57	43d	1	0.34mi
531 Santa Barbara Ave Sugarloaf, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	24d	1	0.37mi
870 Holmes Ln Sugarloaf, CA	2.0	2.0	987	$2,000	$2.03	43d	1	0.39mi
336 Spruce Ln Sugarloaf, CA	2.0	1.5	896	$1,799	$2.01	43d	1	0.41mi
855 San Bernardino Ave Sugarloaf, CA	2.0	2.0	1322	$2,200	$1.66	43d	1	0.43mi
231 Riverside Ave Sugarloaf, CA	2.0	1.5	1193	$1,495	$1.25	22d	1	0.51mi
158 Leonard Ln Sugarloaf, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,450	$2.04	18d	1	0.51mi
1336 La Crescenta Dr Big Bear City, CA	3.0	2.0	1128	$2,650	$2.35	43d	1	1.15mi
413 S Marlowe Dr Big Bear City, CA	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	43d	1	1.19mi
716 Barret Way Big Bear City, CA	3.0	2.5	1694	$1,995	$1.18	43d	1	1.24mi
633 Barret Way Big Bear City, CA	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,450	$2.19	43d	1	1.29mi
43615 Wolf Rd Big Bear Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,850	$1.79	43d	1	1.34mi
43785 Sand Canyon Rd Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,600	$2.75	43d	1	1.34mi
645 Villa Grove Ave Big Bear Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	976	$2,450	$2.51	24d	1	1.36mi
217 Greenspot Blvd Big Bear City, CA	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,200	$1.70	1d	1	1.36mi
112 Greenspot Blvd Big Bear City, CA	2.0	2.0	1193	$1,795	$1.50	15d	1	1.45mi
300 E Big Bear Blvd Big Bear City, CA	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-18
   listed $189,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,164 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,164 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 11 d/yr ≥82°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,164
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,125
• − Management: −$2,125
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $3,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$748
• After-tax cash flow: $5,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear City

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #988
• US rank: #24706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Bear City, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 9,334
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,042
• Household income: $50,694
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 151.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Russian 4% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.95%
• Current HPI: 404.3928
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+203.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Delisted — MRCAOR
• 2026-06-17 Listed $189,000 MRCAOR
• 1988-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1985-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,164 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.