27103 Blue Pool Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$299,888

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 5,079 sqft lot $141/sqft · 38% below area Est $486k · 38% under · waterfront $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful lake front home, better than new with owner upgrades!. .. …. . 4-Bedroom home in the sought-after Sunterra Subdivision in Katy! This modern 2-story home sits on a 5,080 sq. ft. lot that overlooks the lake; a beautiful and peaceful view! Home offers beautiful Quartz countertops, upgraded lighting & floors, and a full water filtration system throughout the entire home. The kitchen is fully equipped with Stainless Steel appliances including a refrigerator and that also includes a washer & dryer! All residents of Sunterra can enjoy access to different choices of community amenities, including a Lazy River, a 24-Hour Fitness and resort-style pool located at The Retr

Key facts

• Owner upgrades
• Quartz countertops
• Community amenities

Tags

• LAKE FRONT HOME
• OWNER UPGRADES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• FULL WATER FILTRATION SYSTEM
• SUNTERRA SUBDIVISION
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-managed pool and community amenities
• HOA & community: Member of Sunterra Property Owners Association; Annual HOA fee of $1,200; HOA maintains clubhouse, common areas and recreation facilities; Community clubhouse and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Security: Gated/guarded community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Has a view
• Construction: Built in 2023; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Waterfront lot with lakefront access; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Quartz counters; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-461 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,532 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.58%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,454
• List price: $299,888
• Delta: -38.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5806 Havana Mist Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,134 (0%)	0mo	$305,000	$143	95
27334 Leeward Jetty Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,201 (+3%)	0mo	$357,990	$163	79
27507 Crystalline Sage Ln	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,170 (+2%)	0mo	$364,990	$168	75
27303 Leeward Jetty Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,340 (+10%)	0mo	$357,330	$153	70
27519 Crystalline Sage Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-5%)	0mo	$371,990	$183	69
27018 Turtle Vista Dr	0.14mi	4/3.5	2,400 (+12%)	0mo	$411,990	$172	68
4784 Luna Landing Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,168 (+2%)	0mo	$335,990	$155	68
4680 Peony Green Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,056 (-4%)	0mo	$343,990	$167	62
26803 Scarlet Willow Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	1,968 (-8%)	0mo	$275,240	$140	59
6018 Bella Breeze Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,294 (+8%)	0mo	$349,990	$153	57
27723 Oasis Ridge Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,294 (+8%)	1mo	$375,990	$164	54
4632 Cleo Day Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (-13%)	0mo	$299,990	$161	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-85,817
• Equity at exit: $44,714

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-142,905
• Equity at exit: $25,929

Cash invested: $83,969 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$906 /mo · $10,872/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $-461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,422

Max offer price $218,532

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-291	-5% $-376	+0% $-461	+5% $-545	+10% $-630
Rent	-10% $-685	-5% $-573	+0% $-461	+5% $-348	+10% $-236
Rate	-1.0pp $-310	-0.5pp $-384	base $-461	+0.5pp $-538	+1.0pp $-617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,972
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.24mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	0.25mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	45d	1	0.28mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	0.38mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	18d	1	0.43mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	45d	1	0.61mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	14d	1	0.65mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	26d	1	0.69mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	26d	1	0.73mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	0.75mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	26d	1	0.76mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	45d	1	0.79mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	5d	1	0.92mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	0.92mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	23d	1	0.94mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	0.95mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	45d	1	0.98mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	17d	1	0.98mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	0.99mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	14d	1	1.03mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	26d	1	1.04mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	14d	1	1.05mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	26d	1	1.05mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	1.07mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	1.07mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	1.09mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	1.09mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	1.09mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	26d	1	1.10mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	45d	1	1.12mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	45d	1	1.16mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	0d	17	1.20mi
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	45d	1	1.27mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	45d	1	1.28mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,599	$1.21	0d	1	1.28mi
5835 Big Bluestem Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2890	$2,406	$0.83	45d	1	1.30mi
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	45d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,888 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,888 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,888 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,888 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,888 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,888 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,888 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,888 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $299,888 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $309,900 Active 890-char remark
16. 2026-04-30
    historical
17. 2026-03-10
    price $309,900
18. 2026-02-19
    listed $319,888 Active
19. 2025-01-18
    historical
20. 2024-09-05
    price $403,000
21. 2024-07-19
    listed $415,000 Active
22. 2023-03-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,872 · $906/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,872 · $906/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,798
• − Property taxes: −$10,872
• − Insurance: −$1,499
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,726
• − Management: −$2,726
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$10,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,514
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern 2-story home in Sunterra Subdivision is in excellent condition with recent upgrades and a beautiful lake view. It's move-in ready with a good ROI potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint — refreshes interior and exterior spaces

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint — refreshes interior and exterior spaces ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $299,888 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $319,888 HARMLS
• 2025-01-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $403,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-19 Listed $415,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+177.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,872 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.