4005 North 19th St #506 · Bismarck, ND 58503

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 140 Days on market

Built 2016 Est $90k · 11% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2016
• Listed 139 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces; On-site and off-street parking
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One level; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle (asphalt) roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Garden; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Oven; Microwave
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Security system; Garden
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $799 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 481 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.26%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,600
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4005 19th St N #514	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-5%)	18mo	$85,000	$70	77
1718 Chandler Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-4%)	2mo	$84,900	$69	71
4012 North Valley Loop	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-4%)	13mo	$99,900	$81	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $44,660
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $149,827
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 481
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $799

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4309 N 19th St Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,955	$1.78	21d	1	0.35mi
3009 43rd Ave NE Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,024	$1.93	21d	22	0.56mi
3103 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,860	$1.72	21d	6	0.66mi
1600 Mapleton Ave Unit 104 Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,600	$1.10	21d	1	0.86mi
3504 French St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	966	$1,795	$1.86	21d	1	1.20mi
1834 E Capitol Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$1,770	$1.59	21d	13	1.39mi
4126A Normandy St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	1468	$1,750	$1.19	21d	1	1.41mi
1820 E Capitol Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$1,545	$1.47	21d	12	1.42mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 121 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 120 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    price $99,900
19. 2026-03-11
    price $114,900
20. 2026-01-30
    price $119,900
21. 2026-01-29
    listed $115,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $8,498
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,039
• After-tax cash flow: $7,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $99,900 GNMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $114,900 GNMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $119,900 GNMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $115,500 GNMLS