1306 Shepherd Ave · Sanford, FL 32771

$242,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,804 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 441 Days on market

Built 1941 4,250 sqft lot Est $354k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market and ready for new owner. .. .Great starter home or investment property. .. Good location, centrally located near schools, shopping and highways. Must see property to fully appreciate its potential! Priced to sell quickly, so bring allall offers!!! See attachments, sign and submit all attachments with proof of funds and copy of escrow check.

Key facts

• 4,250 sq ft lot
• Built 1941
• Listed 441 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential / Single Family Residence; Zoned RESI
• Financial info: Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No association fees; No HOA approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.1 acre lot
• Exterior features: Asphalt road frontage; No patios or porches listed; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Other; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Stone counters; Window treatments; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.6% in Sanford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#316 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Idyllwilde Elementary School (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,656 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 772 students, 80% FRL); Seminole High School (math 35% / reading 51%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 4,036 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 38% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 59% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Seminole average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 561 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 441 days — a 12% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $242k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 441 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.55%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $353,584
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1013 W 11th St	0.15mi	3/3.0	1,705 (-6%)	0mo	$326,800	$192	82
1203 W 9th St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-0%)	0mo	$378,000	$210	79
1211 W 15th St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,708 (-5%)	5mo	$353,000	$207	77
1216 Historic Goldsboro Blvd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-15%)	2mo	$130,000	$85	68
2006 S Maple Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,708 (-5%)	2mo	$370,000	$217	61
615 S Laurel Ave	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,802 (-0%)	2mo	$354,000	$196	61
412 Editha Cir	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,773 (-2%)	2mo	$325,000	$183	58
2013 S Holly Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,645 (-9%)	0mo	$339,900	$207	56
1318 S Park Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,905 (+6%)	2mo	$240,000	$126	55
1503 W 7th St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-9%)	8mo	$355,000	$217	53
300 W 12th St	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,038 (+13%)	5mo	$355,000	$174	41
1707 Merthie Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,066 (+14%)	5mo	$382,500	$185	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-35,736
• Equity at exit: $36,083

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-41,505
• Equity at exit: $20,924

Cash invested: $67,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32771

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 561
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,218 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,856/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,035

Max offer price $242,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $281	-5% $213	+0% $144	+5% $76	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-31	-5% $57	+0% $144	+5% $232	+10% $319
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $206	base $144	+0.5pp $81	+1.0pp $18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,500
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2008 William Clark Ave Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1328	$2,199	$1.66	3d	1	0.50mi
107 Garrison Dr Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1439	$1,800	$1.25	18d	1	0.58mi
2441 Marshall Ave Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$2,235	$1.53	5d	1	0.87mi
153 Cape Honeysuckle Pl Sanford, FL	3.0	2.5	1380	$2,395	$1.74	24d	1	1.06mi
164 Cape Honeysuckle Pl Sanford, FL	3.0	2.5	1587	$2,395	$1.51	24d	1	1.08mi
129 Oakman Way Unit 1 Sanford, FL	3.0	3.0	1652	$2,349	$1.42	5d	1	1.11mi
700 E 7th St Sanford, FL	4.0	2.0	1440	$2,200	$1.53	24d	1	1.21mi
2530 Georgia Ave Unit B Sanford, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	24d	1	1.22mi
2006 Williams Ave Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$3,200	$2.07	5d	1	1.24mi
2015 Jones Ave Sanford, FL	3.0	1.5	1291	$1,895	$1.47	13d	1	1.27mi
2995 Railside Loop Sanford, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$2,458	$2.56	5d	21	1.44mi
331 Placid Lake Dr Sanford, FL	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,960	$1.52	20d	1	1.46mi
2616 River Landing Dr Sanford, FL	3.0	2.5	1642	$2,190	$1.33	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $242,000 Pending 441 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $242,000 Active 440 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $242,000 Active 439 DOM
4. 2026-04-09
   price $242,000
5. 2025-07-18
   price $260,000
6. 2025-06-26
   price $280,000
7. 2025-03-18
   listed $290,000 Active
8. 2023-12-06
   historical $1,650
9. 2023-11-20
   listed $1,650
10. 2020-03-23
    soldstatus $100,000
11. 2010-06-18
    soldstatus $23,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Back on the market and ready for new owner. .. .Great starter home or investment property. .. Good location, centrally located near schools, shopping and highways. Must see property to fully appreciate its potential! Priced to sell quickly, so bring allall offers!!! See attachments, sign and submit all attachments with proof of funds and copy of escrow check.

12. 2010-05-01
    listed $24,900 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Back on the market and ready for new owner. .. .Great starter home or investment property. .. Good location, centrally located near schools, shopping and highways. Must see property to fully appreciate its potential! Priced to sell quickly, so bring allall offers!!! See attachments, sign and submit all attachments with proof of funds and copy of escrow check.

13. 2009-02-25
    listed $28,900
14. 2009-02-25
    historical
15. 2008-09-01
    listed $75,000
16. 2007-06-04
    soldstatus $139,000
17. 2007-05-29
    soldstatus $139,000
18. 2007-01-23
    listed $139,900
19. 2007-01-10
    historical
20. 2005-11-11
    listed $144,990
21. 2005-08-23
    soldstatus $50,000
22. 2005-01-11
    listed $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,856 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,856 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,856
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,129
• − Management: −$2,129
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$2,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$554
• After-tax cash flow: $2,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seminole
• NCES district ID: 1201710
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,478
• Composite: 51.05/100
• National rank: #1769
• State rank: #13 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanford

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #316
• US rank: #5359

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanford, FL
• County: Seminole County · 436,154 people
• City population: 96,638
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 62,606
• Household income: $77,868
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2645.0

Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 515,494 people
• By 2030: 545,713 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 598,068 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 640,663 · +24.3%
• By 2075: 724,461 · +40.5%
• By 2100: 755,530 · +46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Seminole

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.8pp no change · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.8 2016: R+1.6 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -281.27%
• Current HPI: 299.2738
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.38%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+303.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $242,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-18 Listed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-06 Rental Removed $1,650 STELLARMLS
• 2023-11-20 Listed for Rent $1,650 STELLARMLS
• 2020-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-18 Sold (MLS) $23,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-01 Listed $24,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-25 Listed $28,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-01 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2007-05-29 Sold (MLS) $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-23 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-11 Listed $144,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-23 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-11 Listed $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,856 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.