5168 Stephanie Dr · Granite City, IL 62040

$89,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,953 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1989 0.32 ac lot $46/sqft · 69% below area Est $143k · 38% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AUCTION. Affordable fixer upper will require your updates. This split level home offers ample room to relax and entertain with 4 beds, 1.5 baths, large kitchen, an unfinished basement area, and an attached 2 car garage. The large deck and lower patio offers views of the spacious lot. Rehab will be needed throughout to include floors and other cosmetic updates. Property is sold as-is with NO property disclosure or inspection reports. CAUTION - Deck area missing rails and damage to the floors. DO NOT ACCESS THE DECK.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 6.9% in Granite City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#623 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Granite City CUSD 9 (suburban): math 9% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #570 of 620 in IL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,445 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.13%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,330
• List price: $89,500
• Delta: -37.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5161 Stacey Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	1,960 (+0%)	9mo	$210,000	$107	81
5104 Stephanie Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,937 (-1%)	2mo	$200,000	$103	79
5117 Stephanie Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,970 (+1%)	8mo	$224,000	$114	76
5144 Stephanie Dr	0.07mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,976 (+1%)	15mo	$199,900	$101	71
4913 Redwood Ln	0.41mi	4/1.0	1,985 (+2%)	8mo	$199,900	$101	70
5169 Stacey Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,014 (+3%)	19mo	$215,000	$107	69
5129 Stacey Dr	0.14mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,135 (+9%)	2mo	$200,000	$94	65
5176 Stephanie Dr	0.03mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,027 (+4%)	22mo	$180,000	$89	63
4941 Mueller Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,914 (-2%)	17mo	$144,900	$76	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $14,286
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $44,157
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62040

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,589 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,184/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $534	-5% $508	+0% $483	+5% $458	+10% $432
Rent	-10% $358	-5% $420	+0% $483	+5% $546	+10% $609
Rate	-1.0pp $528	-0.5pp $506	base $483	+0.5pp $460	+1.0pp $436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,500 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $89,500 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,200 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,200 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,200 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $98,200 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,200 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,200 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,200 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,200 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $98,700 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    AUCTION. Affordable fixer upper will require your updates. This split level home offers ample room to relax and entertain with 4 beds, 1.5 baths, large kitchen, an unfinished basement area, and an attached 2 car garage. The large deck and lower patio offers views of the spacious lot. Rehab will be needed throughout to include floors and other cosmetic updates. Property is sold as-is with NO property disclosure or inspection reports. CAUTION - Deck area missing rails and damage to the floors. DO NOT ACCESS THE DECK.

17. 2026-04-13
    price $104,100 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    AUCTION. Affordable fixer upper will require your updates. This split level home offers ample room to relax and entertain with 4 beds, 1.5 baths, large kitchen, an unfinished basement area, and an attached 2 car garage. The large deck and lower patio offers views of the spacious lot. Rehab will be needed throughout to include floors and other cosmetic updates. Property is sold as-is with NO property disclosure or inspection reports. CAUTION - Deck area missing rails and damage to the floors. DO NOT ACCESS THE DECK.

18. 2026-03-26
    price $118,500 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    AUCTION. Affordable fixer upper will require your updates. This split level home offers ample room to relax and entertain with 4 beds, 1.5 baths, large kitchen, an unfinished basement area, and an attached 2 car garage. The large deck and lower patio offers views of the spacious lot. Rehab will be needed throughout to include floors and other cosmetic updates. Property is sold as-is with NO property disclosure or inspection reports. CAUTION - Deck area missing rails and damage to the floors. DO NOT ACCESS THE DECK.

19. 2026-03-10
    listed $137,800 Active 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    AUCTION. Affordable fixer upper will require your updates. This split level home offers ample room to relax and entertain with 4 beds, 1.5 baths, large kitchen, an unfinished basement area, and an attached 2 car garage. The large deck and lower patio offers views of the spacious lot. Rehab will be needed throughout to include floors and other cosmetic updates. Property is sold as-is with NO property disclosure or inspection reports. CAUTION - Deck area missing rails and damage to the floors. DO NOT ACCESS THE DECK.

20. 2003-09-17
    soldstatus $102,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,184 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,184 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$3,184
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $4,766
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,144
• After-tax cash flow: $4,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granite City CUSD 9
• NCES district ID: 1717280
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,082
• Composite: 9.15/100
• National rank: #9864
• State rank: #570 of 620 in IL

Livability — Granite City

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12751

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 189,064 people
• City population: 40,404
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,404
• Household income: $60,031
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 923.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 258,371 people
• By 2030: 251,523 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 233,640 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 213,042 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 165,255 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 123,953 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 42.5% · R 55.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.4 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.88%
• Current HPI: 204.4612
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $98,700 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $104,100 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $118,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $137,800 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,184 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.